Value tree analysis

[2] The concept of utility was used by Daniel Bernoulli (1738) first in 1730s while explaining the evaluation of St Petersburg paradox, a specific uncertain gable.

This discovery led to the emergence of utility theory, which is a numerical measure that indicates how much value alternative choices have.

People started to use theory of games to explain the behavior of those who are rational and calm when engaging with others with conflict happening.

[3] The goal of the value tree analysis process is to offer a well-organized way to think and discuss about alternatives and support subjective judgements which are critical for correct or excellent decisions.

For example, problem structure, collection of related information, and modeling of DM preferences often require a lot of work.

Plus separate aspects, thoughts and opinions are united to a single visual representation, which gives birth to great clarity, stimulation of creative thinking, and constructive communication.

We take the steps below to create a value tree analysis with an example to help illustrate the steps:[4] Step1: Initial pool Using a free brainstorming of all the values as a beginning, by which we mean all the problems which are related to the decision: the goals and criteria, the demands, etc.—all the things which have relevance to decision making.

PRIME Decisions are seen as an essential catalyst for further applied work due to its practitioners benefit from M. Köksalan et al.

), Multiple Criteria Decision Making in the New Millennium © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2001 166 the explicit recognition of incomplete information.

All other sorts of information like geography, media files describing the criteria or alternatives can be referred to this link, which help make a better quality of decision support significantly.

The instances of the main application areas are shown as below:[7] Allocating the engineering budget for products and projects annually is always a challenge.

Furthermore, there is likelihood of communication being increased by explicit modelling of the relevant facts and a base for justified decisions is also provided.

Value tree analysis offers a tool to give support to the reasoning of the selection of the R&D programme and modelling the facts affecting the decision.

For instance, organizing a debate about nuclear power, aiding the decision process, and studying value differences between the decision-makers.

As value tree analysis is an approach that costs and computes little, it is one of the best choices for time-sensitive variable selection in empirical pilot healthcare studies.