Aging of the United States
[4] Nevertheless, the rate of aging in the United States remains slower than that seen in many other countries,[5][6] including some developing ones,[3] giving the nation a significant competitive advantage.
[17] At the national level, the United States faces shortages of skilled workers, but does not offer foreign talents, including graduates of American universities, a straightforward path towards residency or citizenship.
[18][19] At the same time, industrial automation has accelerated to address the labor shortage[20] while a combination of population aging and growing public skepticism has led to the shrinkage of higher education.
[23] But American women continue to have more children on average than their counterparts in other industrialized nations despite the fact that the United States does not offer generous welfare programs by comparison.
Aside from the baby boom that followed the Second World War, the birth rate in the United States has declined steadily since the early nineteenth century, when the average person had as many as seven children and infant mortality was high.
[33][34] During the 1930s, the Great Depression caused a substantial decrease in the birth rate, but this trend was reversed in the subsequent Baby Boomer generation,[35] thanks to a combination of economic prosperity, rapid technological progress, and medical advances making housekeeping and child-rearing less onerous for women.
[3] By the end of the twenty-first century, the United States could comprise 4% of the global population, where it is now, and the median age could reach around 45, making the nation younger than China, Japan, and the European Union.
[31] Women born during the first decade of the twentieth century saw another dip fertility because they came of age during the First World War, the Spanish flu epidemic, and the Great Depression.
While economic troubles and climate anxiety are commonly cited reasons,[64] data suggest they are not the primary factors behind falling fertility in the U.S. Rather, it is due to changing attitudes; today's young people, especially women, tend to prioritize and expect more from their careers and are less interested in having children.
[69] Moreover, from the late twentieth century onward, the United States has become a fairly stable environment with low infant and child mortality rates on one hand and a competitive society on the other.
[39][23][59] The number of American women earning university degrees has grown relative to men's since the late 2000s, coinciding with the long-term decline in birth rates.
[39] Data dating back to the 1980s show that this is part of a long-term trend, possibly starting with the Baby Boomers, who were the first cohort to begin questioning social norms on family formation.
[91] By the late 2010s, the United States found itself facing a shortage of tradespeople,[22][92] a problem that persisted in the early 2020s despite the COVID-19 pandemic-induced recession and prospective employers offering higher salaries and paid training.
[101] Employment rates among workers aged 65 and over are increasing since the 1990s,[102][13] and, indeed, the share of people who continue working after turning 65 is relatively high in the US, when compared to other developed countries.
[22][96] Like most other members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the U.S. has seen its productivity growth falter and its debt as a share of GDP increase due to demographic trends.
[17] Having a relatively young, diligent, and productive workforce means that the United States will continue to have a significant number of consumers, investors and taxpayers in the upcoming decades.
[41] However, a sustained sub-replacement fertility and low rates of migration will lead to an aging population, a potential indicator that the U.S. economy could be less dynamic, innovative, and productive than it was in the past.
[111][2] By 2023, shortages of highly skilled workers are already jeopardizing the Joe Biden administration's plan to modernize public infrastructure and to rejuvenate the manufacturing sector.
[115] In the 1970s, American colleges and universities saw a dramatic increase in enrollments due to the post-war baby boom and the growth of women in higher education and the work force.
[22] Moreover, due to declining birth rates, the number of American high-school graduates is expected to drop after 2025, putting more pressure on institutions of higher learning at a time when many have already been permanently shut down.
[127] According to a 2020 report from the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE), the biggest declines will be seen in the Northeast, the Upper Midwest, and West Virginia, Mississippi, New Mexico, and California.
[21] To survive, non-elite institutions will have to cut back or eliminate courses in the liberal arts and humanities, like gender studies,[129] and expand those in emerging fields, such as artificial intelligence,[130] and professional programs, such as law enforcement.
[141] To combat this problem, the U.S. needs to improve ties with emerging economies, such as the Philippines, Indonesia, and India,[9] though some of these countries are already in the process of transitioning towards an aging society.
[158] However, given current trends (2023), U.S. federal expenditure on programs for the elderly will equal spending on education, research and development, transportation, and national defense combined by 2033.
Older and retired people tend to need more health services, which must be provided by their younger counterparts, so some demographers have theorized that this could have a negative impact on the country.
[160][166] Changing from a youth-focused culture to having a more positive attitude towards aging and being more respectful of seniors like Japan can help elderly Americans extend their life span and live out their sunset years in dignity.
[168] In his work on elite overproduction, social scientist Peter Turchin notes that because given U.S. demographic realities, the youth bulge would likely not fade away before the 2020s, making this time period prone to sociopolitical turbulence.
[170] Cities could render themselves friendlier towards the elderly, for example by improving public transit,[171] promoting healthy lifestyle choices (physical activities, learning, and social engagement), adding green spaces and recreational facilities.
)[61] To deal with the increased demand that could be placed on the healthcare system, telehealth and virtual health monitoring has arisen as a way to help support a larger population of older adults.
[177] Arguments in favor of increasing immigration to combat declining population levels have sparked outcry from some right-wing political factions in the United States and some European countries.
