Analytic confidence

Analytic confidence is a rating employed by intelligence analysts to convey doubt to decision makers about a statement of estimative probability.

The need for analytic confidence ratings arise from analysts' imperfect knowledge of a conceptual model.

Rather, the advances in cognitive psychology established a groundwork for understanding well calibrated confidence levels in decision making.

[2] Analysts often lessened certainty statements when confronted with challenging analysis, instead of proscribing a level of analytic confidence to explain those concerns.

By lessening certainty levels due to a lack of confidence, a dangerous possibility of misrepresenting the target existed.