Climate change in Mexico
Already climate change has impacted agriculture,[1] biodiversity, farmer livelihoods, and migration,[2][3] as well as water, health, air pollution, traffic disruption from floods, and housing vulnerability to landslides.
[6][clarification needed] Ecological impacts of climate change within Mexico include reductions in landscape connectivity and shifting migratory patterns of animals.
Furthermore, climate change in Mexico is tied to worldwide trade and economic processes which relate directly to global food security.
[18] An evaluation of this property of connectivity of the mountain cloud forests of Michoacán was carried out by researchers in order to determine which areas would best benefit from greater conservation efforts.
[19] Warming temperatures and land-use change are contributing to the movement of butterfly distributions up the Sierra de Juárez mountain range in Oaxaca, Mexico.
[23] In order to collect his data, Flesch used techniques that had been used by previous researchers and conducted an observational survey to determine biodiversity values.
"Wheat production for Mexico is expected to decline by 12% under the future RCP 8.5 climate change scenario with additional losses of 7 to 18% because of O3 impact," according to a July 2019 article.
"[30][11] Exact predictions are difficult to make due to the complexity of the factors involved and the impacts will be highly region-specific; however, there is a general consensus that the productivity of crops and livestock will decline.
[31] Scientists also expect that certain insect pests and plant pathogens will survive and reproduce more often due to warming temperatures and are likely to invade new regions.
[28] Decreased precipitation will place higher burdens on irrigated agriculture, on which much of the country's exported, economically-important crops rely.
[24] Declining crop yields in Mexico due to climate change will ultimately impact global trade networks, national economies, and food security in countries that are, perhaps, geographically distant; yet through free-trade policies such as NAFTA and USMCA, have become highly dependent on Mexican agriculture.
Maize diversity in Mexico continues to be maintained and managed by smallholder farmers who participate in traditional seed sharing networks.
[11] The majority of farmers in Mexico use, save, and exchange the seed of traditional maize landraces along with “creolized” (hybridized or cross-pollinated) commercial cultivars, which are typically planted in small (<5 ha) rain-fed fields.
[16] Variable and extreme climatic events such as droughts, floods, and excessive heat is already impacting both the quality and overall production of coffee in Mexico.
A handful of coffee companies, NGOs, and agencies have initiated training and education programs for Mexican farmers to better respond to climate change.
[33] Climate change is very closely tied to environmental justice in Mexico, given that poor smallholder farmers will likely carry the largest burden.
[28] There is evidence to suggest that declining agricultural conditions from climate change in Mexico directly relates to migration to the United States.
[37] Declines in agricultural productivity due to climate change might cause 1.4 to 6.7 million adult Mexicans to emigrate by the year 2080.
[37] Valle de Bravo, a man-made lagoon located approximately 85 miles west of Mexico City, faces a significant water crisis.
The lake’s capacity has diminished to 28% of its usual level due to an extended dry season, with satellite imagery showing an 18% reduction in the shoreline between 2022 and 2024.
Nationally, around 51% of Mexico is experiencing severe or extreme drought, with one-third of the population lacking reliable daily access to water.
[50] The NDC target regarding México against climate change and greenhouse gas emissions under the Paris agreement are the following:[51] Every country has different ways to achieve the established goals depending on his size, history and resources.
