[5] These emissions are mostly from the energy sector,[6] an integral component of many Middle Eastern and North African economies due to the extensive oil and natural gas reserves that are found within the region.
[9] The MENA region is especially vulnerable to such impacts due to its arid and semi-arid environment, facing climatic challenges such as low rainfall, high temperatures and dry soil.
[11][12][13] Climate change is expected to put significant strain on already scarce water and agricultural resources within the MENA region, threatening the national security and political stability of all included countries.
[16] As of January 2021, the UNICEF website groups the following set of 20 countries as belonging to the MENA region: 'Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran (Islamic Republic of), Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, State of Palestine, Sudan, Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen.
[4] MENA countries heavily rely on fossil fuels for the generation of electricity, sourcing 97% of their energy from oil, natural gas, and coal (in Turkey).
[27] Whilst projected rates of warming during winter months are low, the region is expected to experience extreme temperature increases during summer.
[28] Considering also increased sandstorms associated with longer drought periods, even a 2 degree temperature rise would make large parts of the region uninhabitable and force people to migrate.
[10] Dutch atmospheric chemist Johannes Lelieveld has projected that temperature maximum's could reach almost 50 degrees Celsius under current climate scenarios established by the IPCC.
[41] Along with environmental impacts, increasing drought periods affect agricultural incomes, diminishes public health and weakens political stability in the MENA region.
[42] Syria experienced its most severe drought on record from 2007 to 2010, where restricted water supply degraded agricultural resources and increased economic pressures.
[41][43] American environmental scientist Peter Gleick also asserts that heightened social vulnerability and conflict over scare water supplies during this period catalysed the onset of the Syrian war.
[44] In 2019 Konstantin Ash and Nick Obradovich published research indicating that extreme drought was one of the leading factors in the creation of the Syrian war.
[46] North African countries are highly vulnerable to reduced precipitation, as 88% of the region's crops possess no irrigation, relying on consistent rainfall.
[14][49] As a result, the population of the MENA region is expected to be significantly impacted by sea level rise occurring due to climate change.
[50] One consequence of rising sea levels is the loss of coastal wetlands, a natural resource responsible for ecosystem services such as storm buffering, water quality maintenance and carbon sequestration.
[51] A study conducted by the World Bank predicts that the MENA region would lose over 90% of its coastal and freshwater wetlands if a one-metre sea level rise were to occur.
[52] However, failures occurring in these structures, storm surges and extreme weather events could lead to the inundation of these areas in the future if sea levels continue to rise.
[57] The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) has identified over half of all land in GCC states as being suitable for the deployment of solar and wind technologies.
[67] The project, costing US$2.67 billion, is expected to provide 1.1 million Moroccans with clean energy and reduce the country's carbon emissions by 700,000 tonnes every year.
[74] The World Bank deemed the plan's core focus to be ensuring food and water security, increasing resilience to climate change impacts and improving investment in renewable energy source.
[74] One of the Action Plan's major commitments was to allocate 18-30% of MENA finance towards climate related initiatives, which currently stands a $1.5 billion annually.
The World Bank have also outlined a significant increase in funding directed towards adaptation initiatives such as water conservation and recycling, introduction of desalination facilities and investment into carbon sequestration technologies.
[74] Egypt's Nile Delta is impacted by saltwater intrusion caused by sea level rise, leading to major implications for the country.
[85][note 1] In Iraq, climate change has led to environmental impacts such as increasing temperatures, decreasing precipitation, land degradation, and water scarcity.
[90] Rising temperatures, intensified droughts, declining precipitation, desertification, salinization, and the increasing prevalence of dust storms are challenges Iraq faces due in to the negative impacts of climate change.
National and regional political instability and conflict have made it difficult to mitigate the effects of climate change, address transnational water management, and develop sustainably.
[89] Climate change has negatively impacted Iraq's population through loss of economic opportunity, food insecurity, water scarcity, and displacement.
[99] According to Israel's Intended nationally determined contribution the main mitigation target is to reduce per capita greenhouse gas emissions to 8.8 tCO2e by 2025 and to 7.7 tCO2e by 2030.
This might be accompanied by activities improving Jordan's capacity to monitor and project meteorological and hydrological data and assess its own vulnerability to climate change.
Climate change is expected to significantly impact Morocco on multiple dimensions, similar to other countries in the Middle East and North Africa region.