These variables have historically turned downward before a recession and upward before an expansion.
[1] A Federal Reserve Bank of New York report What Predicts U.S. Recessions?
uses each component of the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index.
That report said that the indicators signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle, and the aggregate index has been shown to drop ahead of recessions and rise before expansions.
[2] Revisions to The Conference Board Leading Economic Index effective with the January 26, 2012 release began using the new Leading Credit Index ...