Steady organization occurred throughout the next two days, with Rafael becoming a hurricane early on November 6, as it moved northwest towards Cuba.

Favorable conditions enabled the cyclone to rapidly intensify, becoming a Category 3 major hurricane later that day before landfall in Cuba.

Then, after weakening some while over land, it entered the Gulf of Mexico and re-intensified to a major hurricane once again at peak intensity early on November 8.

[a] On October 26, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began monitoring the southwestern Caribbean in anticipation of tropical development.

[3] Several days later, on November 1, a broad area of low pressure developed over the southwestern Caribbean,[4] associated with a Central American gyre.

That afternoon, Air Force Hurricane Hunters collected data showing that the system had developed a closed center but that deep convection had not yet become organized enough for it to be declared a tropical depression.

Due to the disturbance's impending threat to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, the NHC designated the developing storm Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen.

[6] The following day, data from the Hurricane Hunters, satellite imagery, and surface observations revealed that the disturbance had developed a well-defined center and was producing organized deep convection; it was accordingly upgraded to Tropical Depression Eighteen the morning of November 4.

[8] Amid favorable conditions, including warmer than average sea surface temperatures of 30 °C (86 °F),[9] the depression continued to strengthen and became Tropical Storm Rafael that afternoon.

[10][11] The storm tracked northwestward along the southwestern side of a ridge over the western Atlantic on November 5,[12] and passed to the west of Jamaica.

[14] Rapid intensification ensued throughout the morning as a small eye became visible, with Rafael becoming a Category 3 major hurricane that afternoon as it neared Cuba,[15] eventually making landfall in the province of Artemisa, just east of Playa Majana, at 21:15 UTC on November 6, with sustained winds of 115 mph (185 km/h).

[17] It then proceeded to turn west-northwestward and re-intensify, becoming a major hurricane once again early on November 8 with peak winds of 120 mph (195 km/h).

[18] Later that afternoon, however, the system turned westward and began losing strength and organization due to increasing westerly wind shear and dry air intrusion.

[21] On November 10, Rafael's remaining convection collapsed, and it degenerated into a remnant low while drifting over the central Gulf,[22] before opening up into a trough on the next day.

Panama's emergency services agency asked residents and tourists to pay attention to weather warnings issued by authorities and noted the threat of heavy rain and strong waves.

[29] At the time Rafael's precursor was designated as a potential tropical cyclone on November 3, a Hurricane Watch was issued for the Cayman Islands.

[41] Rafael approached as the country was still recovering from a country-wide power blackout and the effects of Hurricane Oscar, which struck the eastern part of Cuba about two weeks earlier.

[54] In La Guajira Department, one person drowned,[55] 192,465 people and 38,493 families were affected,[56] with multiple streams overflowing resulting in numerous roads and houses being flooded.

[59] Officials in Jamaica blamed persistent rains ahead of the potential storm for a large landslide on November 3, which left several rural communities isolated.

[93] Despite being 500 miles (800 km) from the center of the storm, moisture from Rafael caused significant flooding in Georgia and South Carolina, with 12 in (300 mm) of rain falling in less than 24 hours.