[3] The lake is located in the Maputaland, or Umhlabuyalingana, area of KwaZulu-Natal, on the east coast of South Africa.

From the analysis and simulations undertaken, it is concluded that the major cause of the drop in the level of Lake Sibhayi was the below-average rainfall over the period 2001 to 2011.

However, while the simulation results show that the effect on lake levels of abstractions for domestic usage over this period has been negligible, they do indicate that nearly 1.4 m of the drop in lake level can be attributed to the impact of the afforestation which began in the catchment in the 1990s.

A yield analysis of simulated results with historical developments in the catchment for the 65-year period of observed climate record was undertaken using both a fixed minimum allowable lake level or a maximum drop from a reference lake level as criteria for system failure.

Preliminary simulated results indicate that the removal of approximately 5 km2 of forestry is required to release 1 MCM/yr for domestic abstractions.