[3] Four factors can cause a person to be optimistically biased: their desired end state, their cognitive mechanisms, the information they have about themselves versus others, and overall mood.
[4] The factors leading to the optimistic bias can be categorized into four different groups: desired end states of comparative judgment, cognitive mechanisms, information about the self versus a target, and underlying affect.
[8] Likewise, difficulties can arise in measurement procedures, as it is difficult to determine when someone is being optimistic, realistic, or pessimistic.
[12] The optimistic bias is possibly also influenced by three cognitive mechanisms that guide judgments and decision-making processes: the representativeness heuristic, singular target focus, and interpersonal distance.
[4] Some researchers suggest that the representativeness heuristic is a reason for the optimistic bias: individuals tend to think in stereotypical categories rather than about their actual targets when making comparisons.
Likewise, when making judgments and comparisons about their risk compared to others, people generally ignore the average person, but primarily focus on their own feelings and experiences.
Self-enhancement suggests that optimistic predictions are satisfying and that it feels good to think that positive events will happen.
[4] Studies suggest that people attempt to establish and maintain a desired personal image in social situations.
[16] Studies also suggest that individuals who present themselves in a pessimistic and more negative light are generally less accepted by the rest of society.
[18] Another example is that if someone believes that they have a lot of control over becoming infected with HIV, they are more likely to view their risk of contracting the disease to be low.
[10] In previous research, participants from the United States generally had higher levels of optimistic bias relating to perceived control than those of other nationalities.
[9] Prior experience is typically associated with less optimistic bias, which some studies suggest is from either a decrease in the perception of personal control, or make it easier for individuals to imagine themselves at risk.
With regards to the optimistic bias, when people compare themselves to an average person, whether someone of the same sex or age, the target continues to be viewed as less human and less personified, which will result in less favorable comparisons between the self and others.
[4] "Egocentric thinking" refers to how individuals know more of their own personal information and risk that they can use to form judgments and make decisions.
It's possible that greater knowledge about others and their perceptions of their chances of risk bring the comparison group closer to the participant.
[4] This suggests that overall negative moods, including depression, result in increased personal risk estimates but less optimistic bias overall.
[11] Because the optimistic bias can be a strong force in decision-making, it is important to look at how risk perception is determined and how this will result in preventative behaviors.
Therefore, researchers need to be aware of the optimistic bias and the ways it can prevent people from taking precautionary measures in life choices.
Especially with health risk perception, adolescence is associated with an increased frequency of risky health-related behaviors such as smoking, drugs, and unsafe sex.
Functional neuroimaging suggests a key role for the rostral Anterior Cingulate Cortex (ACC) in modulating both emotional processing and autobiographical retrieval.
Based on these data, it is suggested that the rostral ACC has a crucial part to play in creating positive images of the future and ultimately, in ensuring and maintaining the optimism bias.
[22][23] There is a growing body of evidence proving that optimism bias represents one of the biggest single causes of risk for megaproject overspend.
For instance, it can lead to the overestimation of a company's future earnings by investors and this could contribute to a tendency for it to becoming overpriced.
[28] In terms of achieving organizational objectives, it could encourage people to produce unrealistic schedules helping drive a so-called planning fallacy, which often result in making poor decisions and project abandonment.
[30] In a research study of four different tests to reduce the optimistic bias, through lists of risk factors, participants perceiving themselves as inferior to others, participants asked to think of high-risk individuals, and giving attributes of why they were at risk, all increased the bias rather than decreased it.
[9] While this only applies to events with prior experience, knowing the previously unknown will result in less optimism of it not occurring.
[31][32] Surveys of smokers have found that their ratings of their risk of heart disease showed a small but significant pessimism bias; the literature as a whole is inconclusive.