Proposed second Scottish independence referendum

[3] The pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) said before the 2016 election that a second independence referendum should be held if there was a material change of circumstances, such as the UK leaving the European Union.

[6] In 2017, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon gained approval of the Scottish Parliament to seek a "Section 30 Order" under the Scotland Act 1998 to hold an independence referendum "when the shape of the UK's Brexit deal will become clear".

The party specified that their preferred method of showing support for a referendum was via a public petition, although their manifesto did not clarify how many signatories there would have to be to receive their support:[42] In the European Union membership referendum held on 23 June 2016, 52% of voters across the whole UK voted to leave the European Union, with 48% voting to remain; majorities in England and Wales were in favour of leaving the EU, with majorities in Scotland (62%), Northern Ireland and Gibraltar to remain a member of the EU.

[54] On 13 March 2017, Sturgeon announced she would seek Scottish Parliament approval to negotiate with the UK Government for a Section 30 order enabling a legally binding second independence referendum.

[7] On 16 March 2017, ahead of the scheduled debate, Theresa May responded by broadcasting a message where she said that "now is not the time" for a second referendum on Scottish independence, as it would be unclear what the people of Scotland would be voting for.

[9] Ruth Davidson later appeared at a press conference in Edinburgh and stated her position that "we will maintain that it should not take place when there is no clear public and political consent for it to happen".

[55][56] Prior to the passage of the motion, a Green Party amendment was passed, by the same margin, that seeks to enable 16 and 17 year-olds and EU citizens the opportunity to vote in a referendum.

[64] On 25 May 2018, the Scottish National Party published its "Sustainable Growth Commission" report, which detailed the economics of an independent Scotland while maintaining close alignment with British fiscal policy.

The report, additionally, suggested that an independent Scotland would negotiate a share of the UK national debt, while continuing to use the Pound Sterling as currency for at least a decade.

Richard Leonard, Scottish Labour's leader, stated that the report, "will exasperate millions of people around the country who just want the first minister focused on public services".

[19][104] Following Nicola Sturgeon's resignation as First Minister, her successor Humza Yousaf signalled his support for a plan to use the next UK general election as a "de facto referendum" on independence.

Instead, it supported a policy of, should the party win a majority of Scottish seats at the next general election, beginning negotiations with Westminster on how it can go about securing Scotland's independence.

However, Douglas Ross criticized the SNP-led governments for prioritizing constitutional issues over real problems, calling the period a "national act of self-harm."

[110] In 2014, following the Edinburgh Agreement a Section 30 order was made, which temporarily granted the Scottish Parliament the power to legislate for a referendum, which "put beyond doubt" the legality of that vote.

[111] A pro-independence group, "Forward As One", asked the Court of Session in January 2021 to test the competence of the Scottish Parliament to unilaterally legislate for an independence referendum.

[119] On 28 June 2022, Sturgeon announced her government's intention for Dorothy Bain, the Lord Advocate, to ask the UK Supreme Court to rule on the legality of holding an independence referendum without agreement from Westminster.

[121] In July 2022, the UK government confirmed that its Scots Law Officer, the Advocate General, would become a formal party to the case and would urge the Supreme Court to dismiss the request for a ruling and argue that the Scottish Parliament does not have the necessary powers to legislate for a referendum.

[138] Sturgeon also met European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker, who commented that "I will listen carefully to what the first minister will tell me... but we don't have the intention, neither Donald Tusk nor myself, to interfere in an inner British process that is not our duty and this is not our job.

"[139] The Scottish European and External Affairs Committee held an evidence session on 30 June 2016, asking a panel of four experts what they felt was the best way to secure the Scottish-EU relationship.

The report suggested that Scotland would be unlikely to be rejected as a member of the EU, should it become independent, noting that "not since de Gaulle’s veto on UK membership in the 1960s has a democratic country respecting the rule of law been refused admission."

[157][158] This position was criticised by pro-independence think tank Common Weal who propose that Scotland should adopt a new currency as close to Day 1 of independence as possible, as a means to have full fiscal and monetary sovereignty.

[169] SNP MP Ian Blackford stated in 2020 that the EU-UK border created by the Brexit deal would "impose mountains of red tape, added costs and barriers to trade for Scottish businesses.

[177] In 2014, it was expected that Scotland would continue to be an EU member state and would remain a part of the Common Travel Area, not the Schengen Zone, however, there was disagreement about the scale of the issue of managing the borders, citizenship and immigration.

[185] The Scottish Government has previously proposed, in the event of independence, that the site could be converted to a conventional naval base and the joint headquarters for the new armed forces.

"[196] Labour Party leader, Sir Keir Starmer, vowed to block an independence referendum as Prime Minister before the 2024 United Kingdom general election.

[199] Scottish Liberal Democrats leader, Alex Cole-Hamilton, has stated his opposition to an independence referendum, and said it should continue to be refused if nationalists win a majority of voters at the next general election.

In June 2022, when discussing Ukraine's candidate status for European Union membership, Taoiseach Micheál Martin did not back any specific outcome in a future independence referendum, stating: "That would be a matter for the Scottish people to decide.

[204] Throughout the latter half of 2020, with the continuing unpopularity of Johnson in Scotland and the popular leadership of Sturgeon during the first wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic, 'Yes' rose to constant plurality and in some polls majority levels of support.

In October 2020 as the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic began, 'Yes' reached its peak to date when an Ipsos MORI poll for STV News showed a margin in favour of 'Yes' of 52% to 39%.

[205] Since that point sentiment swung steadily back in favour of 'No', coinciding with the period when Brexit trade deal was finally completed, the COVID-19 vaccination program was rolled out and the testimony of Salmond and Sturgeon at a significant Holyrood parliamentary inquiry.