Charteris' final intelligence report had deduced that Germany was bringing 32 divisions, ten per month, from the moribund Eastern Front, so the most likely time for a German Offensive was in late March (again, a correct prediction).
[12] Haig remonstrated in vain with Derby (10 January) about the promotion of his ally Lt-Gen Trenchard from command of the RFC (replaced by Maj-Gen John Salmond) to become Chief of Air Staff.
[13] On 14 January Haig wrote to his wife, apropos the loss of Trenchard, that Derby was "like the feather pillow, bear(ing) the mark of the last person who sat on him" and remarking that he was known in London as the "genial Judas".
On the first evening they met Haig at GHQ and assured him that Lloyd George had no wish to replace him, although they had in fact been tasked by the Prime Minister on 18 January "to find out who are the rising men" amongst the British generals.
Repington, now writing for the "Morning Post" and in a bizarre reversal of allegiances now effectively an ally of the generals – and using information clearly leaked by the War Office – attacked the government over manpower (24 January), complaining that the BEF was only to be given 100,000 Category "A" men.
The BEF was facing a 100,000 manpower shortage by June 1918, whilst Petain talked of losing 25 divisions to natural wastage, but Haig's political credibility was so low that Hankey wrote that they "made asses of themselves".
Haig still anticipated further German attacks in Champagne or Arras, and his only actions on 22 March appear to have been to confirm Gough's decision to fall back to the non-existent Peronne bridgehead, and to telegraph Petain, who had already sent 3 French divisions to the southern sector, for more help.
[63] After initial optimism, Tim Travers has written of "panic" setting in amongst senior officers like Herbert Lawrence and Tavish Davidson at GHQ on 23 March, and there is evidence that a retreat towards the Channel Ports may have been considered.
Half of BEF supplies came in to Le Havre, Rouen and Dieppe and passed by train through Amiens, making it a major choke point, although the Germans did not initially realise the importance of the city.
[68] Planning that winter had left open the question of whether the BEF would retreat southwest or form "an island" around the Channel Ports (Calais, Boulogne, Dunkirk) through which Haig's armies drew the other half of their supplies.
In his typed diary Haig claimed much of the credit for Foch's appointment and to have insisted that he have wider powers over Petain across the whole front, not just the Amiens sector, than Clemenceau had wanted to grant him.
The Germans were experiencing logistical problems after advancing over the ravaged 1916 Somme battlefield, subject to constant attack by the RFC, and with their supplies and equipment pulled by horses in poor shape.
Although this was the furthest part of the German advance, Haig was still (5 April) discussing contingency plans with General Asser to cover Rouen and Le Havre in case Amiens fell.
Lloyd George wanted to accept his resignation, but Henry Wilson, who thought there was no "really outstanding personality" for the job, suggested waiting for Haig's report on the March retreat before making a decision.
[104] On 10 April Georgette was extended northwards, as Friedrich Sixt von Armin's Fourth Army also attacked, forcing the evacuation of Armentieres by Du Cane's XV Corps.
[105][106] Haig issued his famous order (11 April) that his men must carry on fighting "With Our Backs to the Wall and believing in the Justice of our Cause" to protect "The safety of our homes and the Freedom of mankind" – the latter being a real concern after recent British propaganda dwelled on the harsh terms imposed on Russia at Brest-Litovsk.
[117] A third major German offensive ("Bluecher"), against the French in that sector, starting on 27 May, again achieved a 25-mile penetration and overwhelmed Hamilton-Gordon's IX British Corps which had been sent there to refit after being involved in "Michael" and "Georgette".
Foch at first believed "Bluecher" was a diversion to draw allied reserves away from Flanders, which was partly true, but Haig guessed correctly that the enemy would "devote all his energy to exploiting his success".
[146] Foch placed Debeney (First French Army) under Haig's command, against Rawlinson's wishes, and encouraged him to aim for a penetration to Roye, 25 miles South East of Amiens.
Haig then cancelled Fourth Army's attack on Currie's advice (based on aerial reconnaissance) that it would be "a desperate enterprise" for the BEF to overreach itself and engage new German troops with tired Allied ones who had outrun much of their artillery cover, and he switched to a new line of offensive.
[174] Acting largely on his own initiative, Monash captured Mont Saint Quentin (31 August) then Peronne (2 September), making untenable a position which Ludendorff had hoped to hold throughout the winter – Haig ordered III Corps to reinforce the Australians.
[176] On 10 September Haig, on a brief visit to London, told Lord Milner (Secretary of State for War) that 77,000 prisoners and nearly 800 guns had been taken in four weeks, and that German morale was disintegrating and it was "the beginning of the end".
First Army, which included the Canadian Corps, had to cross three trench systems and the Canal du Nord (dry but 100 feet wide), pinning many German reserves in five days of hard fighting and in due course penetrating 6 miles over a 12-mile front and taking 10,000 prisoners.
There were conflicting reports as to whether the US II Corps had captured the crossing over Bellincourt Tunnel – when asked for guidance by Monash, Haig ordered that his own attack must proceed as planned, even if American troops were killed by friendly fire.
[188] On 2 October Hindenburg told the Kaiser's Crown Council that Germany could no longer win a military victory, and the following day a new government was formed under Prince Max, which approached President Wilson for peace based on the Fourteen Points.
[194] After one meeting on 21 October Haig suspected Henry Wilson, a staunch Unionist, of wanting to prolong the war as an excuse to subdue southern Ireland by bringing in conscription there.
[195] Haig gave Foch the same advice at the Senlis Conference (25 October) – he was privately suspicious of French plans to occupy the Rhineland,[196] writing to his wife (1 November) that the peace of the world for the next fifty years depended on not driving Germany to seek future revenge by humiliating her.
Haig's initial complacency soon turned to serious alarm, a breakdown in relations with Petain, and without the intervention of Lloyd George, Wilson, Milner and Foch in the 24–26 March period, it is quite possible that the BEF might have been decisively defeated and the British and French Armies driven apart.
In June Staff Duties gained control of censorship and publicity (formerly part of intelligence) and transport (formerly a separate department under Eric Geddes) was put back under the Quartermaster-General (now Sir Travers Clarke).
[207] There is some dispute over how much direct operational control Haig maintained in the Hundred Days, Tim Travers arguing that he exercised "a symbolic form of leadership", allowing his Army Commanders a very free hand, whilst at the same time Ferdinand Foch, whose role had initially been confined to advice and deployment of reserves, was exerting ever-greater influence over strategy.