However, many academics and professional investors are skeptical of any theory claiming to identify or predict stock market cycles precisely.
[1] Economists using efficient-market hypothesis say that asset prices reflect all available information meaning that it is impossible to systematically beat the market by taking advantage of such cycles.
[2] Changes in stock returns are primarily determined by external factors such as the U.S. monetary policy, the economy, inflation, exchange rates, and socioeconomic conditions (e.g., the 2020-2021 coronavirus pandemic).
[4] Economist Milton Friedman believed that for the most part, excluding very large supply shocks, business declines are more of a monetary phenomenon.
[5] Despite the often-applied term cycles, the fluctuations in business economic activity do not exhibit uniform or predictable periodicity.