Indeed, in view of the ongoing dominance of the existing brands, it has to be questioned whether the risk involved in most major launches is justifiable.
In relation to competitors there are two main alternatives: To a certain extent this discussion has now long since been overtaken by events.
Japanese corporations led the way in reducing development time dramatically, and even to halving it in the very mature car industry.
To quote George Stalk of the Boston Consulting Group: The effects of this time-based advantage are devastating; quite simply, American companies are losing leadership of technology and innovation ...
The risk levels may be much reduced, since there is an existing user base to underwrite sales (as long as the new product doesn't alienate them - as New Coca-Cola did in the US and New Persil did in the UK).
The risk to reveal a new product design too early is another concern for companies in fast moving and highly competitive markets, which is independent from any cost & time considerations.
The technological basis for this kind of test market is a multi-agent system as well as methods from artificial intelligence.