The Singularity Is Near

"[2] Kurzweil describes his Law of Accelerating Returns, which predicts an exponential increase in technologies like computers, genetics, nanotechnology, robotics and artificial intelligence.

[7] For example, Kurzweil notes that when vacuum tubes stopped getting faster, cheaper transistors became popular and continued the overall exponential growth.

[8] Kurzweil calls this exponential growth the law of accelerating returns, and he believes it applies to many human-created technologies such as computer memory, transistors, microprocessors, DNA sequencing, magnetic storage, the number of Internet hosts, Internet traffic, decrease in device size, and nanotech citations and patents.

[10] Kurzweil claims the whole world economy is in fact growing exponentially, although short term booms and busts tend to hide this trend.

[11] A fundamental pillar of Kurzweil's argument is that to get to the singularity, computational capacity is as much of a bottleneck as other things like quality of algorithms and understanding of the human brain.

[8] He feels confident that a new paradigm will debut at that point to carry on the exponential growth predicted by his law of accelerating returns.

Kurzweil claims imaging technologies such as PET and fMRI are increasing exponentially in resolution[15] while he predicts even greater detail will be obtained during the 2020s when it becomes possible to scan the brain from the inside using nanobots.

[16] Once the physical structure and connectivity information are known, Kurzweil says researchers will have to produce functional models of sub-cellular components and synapses all the way up to whole brain regions.

[23] Kurzweil feels with sufficient genetic technology it should be possible to maintain the body indefinitely, reversing aging while curing cancer, heart disease and other illnesses.

[25] Finally, the revolution in robotics will really be the development of strong AI, defined as machines which have human-level intelligence or greater.

[27] Kurzweil concedes that every technology carries with it the risk of misuse or abuse, from viruses and nanobots to out-of-control AI machines.

[34] Kurzweil envisions nanobots which allow people to eat whatever they want while remaining thin and fit, provide copious energy, fight off infections or cancer, replace organs and augment their brains.

[35] Kurzweil says the law of accelerating returns suggests that once a civilization develops primitive mechanical technologies, it is only a few centuries before they achieve everything outlined in the book, at which point it will start expanding outward, saturating the universe with intelligence.

[36][37] As for individual identities during these radical changes, Kurzweil suggests people think of themselves as an evolving pattern rather than a specific collection of molecules.

That means, he continues, that evolution is moving towards a conception of God and that the transition away from biological roots is in fact a spiritual undertaking.

[43] Theodore Modis says "nothing in nature follows a pure exponential" and suggests the logistic function is a better fit for "a real growth process".

For example, world population and the United States's oil production both appeared to be rising exponentially, but both have leveled off because they were logistic.

He lists technology of the day, in 2006, like computers that land supersonic airplanes or in vitro fertility treatments and asks whether brain implants that access the internet or robots in our blood really are that unbelievable.

[48] Paul Davies wrote in Nature that The Singularity is Near is a "breathless romp across the outer reaches of technological possibility" while warning that the "exhilarating speculation is great fun to read, but needs to be taken with a huge dose of salt.

He writes clean methodical sentences, includes humorous dialogues with characters in the future and past, and uses graphs that are almost always accessible.

[45] Janet Maslin in The New York Times wrote "The Singularity is Near is startling in scope and bravado", but says "much of his thinking tends to be pie in the sky".

Kurzweil also directed his own film adaptation, produced in partnership with Terasem; The Singularity is Near mixes documentary interviews with a science-fiction story involving his robotic avatar Ramona's transformation into an artificial general intelligence.

An updated version of Moore's Law over 120 years (based on Kurzweil 's graph ). The 7 most recent data points are all Nvidia GPUs .
Plot showing the exponential growth of computing
Exponential growth of computing
Plot showing the countdown the singularity
Countdown to the singularity