U.S. economic performance by presidential party

[6] In October 2020, Journalist Glenn Kessler of The Washington Post summarized the total job creation by president from Harry S. Truman through Donald Trump as of August 2020.

The Economist reported in August 2014 that real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth averaged about 1.8 percentage points faster under Democrats, from Truman through Obama's first term, which ended in January 2013.

[11] CNN reported in September 2020 that GDP grew 4.1% on average under Democrats, versus 2.5% under Republicans, from 1945 through the second quarter of 2020, a difference of 1.6 percentage points.

Studies published in the American Economic Review by Blinder and Watson have analyzed the factors which determine differences between unemployment rates during Democratic and Republican Leadership.

They commented: "The Democratic edge stems mainly from more benign oil shocks, superior total factor productivity (TFP) performance, a more favorable international environment, and perhaps more optimistic consumer expectations about the near-term future.

"[1] Unemployment is largely influenced by the economic policies from the Federal Reserve, which has as a main objective to balance the trade off between maintaining low and stable inflation vs maximizing employment.

[15] * The COVID-19 pandemic and the Great Resignation had a dramatic influence in statistics presented, including a sharp increase in unemployment rate at the time of changes from Trump to Biden.

Analysis conducted by Vanderbilt University political science professor Larry Bartels in 2004 and 2015 found income growth is faster and more equal under Democratic presidents.

Real incomes grew across all higher percentiles at a greater rate under Democrats, even during the Great Recession and its recovery in Obama's first term.

They wrote that higher budget deficits should theoretically have boosted the economy more for Republicans, and therefore cannot explain the greater GDP growth under Democrats.

[1] In November 2020, The Washington Post cited a study by CFRA Research that the stock market (as measured by the S&P 500) averaged the following annual rates of return, under different control scenarios, from 1945 to September 2020:[24] Bloomberg News reported in November 2021 that Democratic presidents held seven of the top ten positions of S&P 500 returns during the first year of a presidential term, measured from their election days.

[2] Excluded as causes were age and experience of the president, which political party controlled Congress, and quality of economy inherited (as Democrats tended to take over when times were more difficult).

[2] Blinder and Watson concluded: "Rather, it appears that the Democratic edge stems mainly from more benign oil shocks, superior total factor productivity (TFP) performance, a more favorable international environment, and perhaps more optimistic consumer expectations about the near-term future.

"[28][29] The Joint Economic Committee Democrats summarized and expanded the Blinder and Watson analysis in a June 2016 report, writing: "Claims that Republicans are better at managing the economy are simply not true.

While the reasons are neither fully understood nor completely attributable to policy choices, data show that the economy has performed much better during Democratic administrations.

He wrote that Democratic presidents championing the ideas of John Maynard Keynes have taken stronger fiscal action to address crises.