In late 2002, he believed that the world was about to repeat the same mistake that it had made in regard to the Soviet Union during the 1970s—misinterpreting an expansion in US military activity as a sign of its increasing power, when in fact this aggression masks a decline.
Todd critiques the principle of comparative cost advantage, framing it as a constructed American export akin to Hollywood films, whose veracity is highly questionable.
The global economy is sustained by domestic consumption, with the American masses effectively acting as Keynesian “civil servants” providing economic stimulus.
This condition is likened to ancient Rome, where society was divided between a wealthy plutocracy and a dependent plebeian class, maintained by the inflow of resources from conquered territories.
Unlike ancient Rome, however, the United States lacks the two critical components of imperial sustainability: the military and economic capacity to enforce exploitation and a declining universalist ideology that no longer upholds egalitarian principles in its treatment of peoples and nations.
Under the competitive pressures of the Cold War, the United States sought to present itself as an attractive alternative to communism, leading to increased efforts toward the integration of marginalized groups, including African Americans.
For instance, America's pronounced one-sided support for Israel exemplifies a shift away from universalist principles toward more selective and exclusionary application of democratic and egalitarian ideals, which further alienates Arab and Muslim nations.
Emmanuel Todd forecasts the decline of American hegemony by 2050, asserting that this shift will transform the United States into a regular global power rather than signaling its disappearance.
He argues that no other nation—be it Europe, Russia, or Japan—will rise to fill the hegemonic vacuum, resulting in a geopolitical "stalemate," akin to a chess endgame without a decisive winner.
Moreover, Todd emphasizes the importance of restructuring global governance, proposing that Japan and Germany, as the world's second and third largest economies, become permanent members of the United Nations Security Council to enhance its legitimacy and effectiveness.
He highlights Japan's pacifist stance, shaped by its unique historical experience with atomic bombings, and its divergent economic perspective from Anglo-Saxon models as beneficial to global equilibrium.
This is also interpreted as a sign of their increasing weakness and as a reaction of frustration to their de facto economic dependence on the constantly emancipating great powers of Europe and Japan.
A data analysis and comparisons with historical empires lead Todd to the conviction that the United States would regress to a regional power within the next few decades, while the EU, with a resurgent Russia, together with Japan, will determine world events in the future.
[2] Todd argues that America would be incapable of challenging a more powerful country,[1] and that "only one threat to global stability hangs over the world today—the United States itself, which was once a protector and is now a predator.
[1] Todd believes the US should return to its universalist and egalitarian roots, expressed in the 19th century, or make genuine attempts to expand civil rights and be a stabilizing element for the world, like they were in the 1950s.
[3] Emmanuel Todd forecasts the decline of American hegemony by 2050, asserting that this shift will transform the United States into a regular global power rather than signaling its disappearance.
He argues that no other nation—be it Europe, Russia, or Japan—will rise to fill the hegemonic vacuum, resulting in a geopolitical "stalemate," akin to a chess endgame without a decisive winner.
Moreover, Todd emphasizes the importance of restructuring global governance, proposing that Japan and Germany, as the world's second and third largest economies, become permanent members of the United Nations Security Council to enhance its legitimacy and effectiveness.
He highlights Japan's pacifist stance, shaped by its unique historical experience with atomic bombings, and its divergent economic perspective from Anglo-Saxon models as beneficial to global equilibrium.
[5] Alexander Kirshner wrote in the Washington Monthly that "Emmanuel Todd's After the Empire has been a bestseller in France for most of the last year--which should tell you a lot about the book even before you read the first page.
In substance and tone, Todd's writing bears a strong resemblance to that of conservative intellectuals, like Robert Kagan, who proclaim the inevitability of American dominance.