The model, developed by J. Scott Armstrong and Andreas Graefe and first published in the Journal of Business Research,[1] uses 59 biographical cues that are expected to affect the chances of a candidate on being elected.
There is a large stream of research in the field of psychology that analyzes questions such as "what makes people emerge as leaders?
The model wrongly predicted Ford to beat Carter in 1976 as well as Bush to defeat Clinton in 1992.
[1] With the bio-index, forecasts of the election outcome can be made as soon as the candidates are known; they can be issued even before, conditionally, on who is expected to be in the race.
[3] According to the bio-index model, of all Republican candidates in the field, Rick Perry had the highest chance to defeat Obama in 2012.