Climate ensemble

An ultimate aim may be to produce policy relevant information such as a probability distribution function of different outcomes.

Members of a multi-model ensemble are developed by different organisations involved in climate change research and can differ substantially in their software design and programming approach, their handling of spatial discretisation and exact formulation of physical, chemical and biological processes.

[2] Perturbed physics ensembles (PPEs) form the main scientific focus of the Climateprediction.net project.

However, these models contain large numbers of adjustable parameters which are known, individually, to have a significant impact on simulated climate.

Initial condition ensembles involve the same model in terms of the same atmospheric physics parameters and forcings, but run from variety of different starting states.

Climate ensembles were used to project future changes in the occurrence of selected pests of crops.