The JTWC began issuing products on the storm complex on October 21, noting recent consolidation patterns and its association with an ill-defined low-level circulation centre.
[3] Despite these signs of potential tropical cyclogenesis in the very near future, the storm remained unclassified for several days as it tracked generally towards the west.
[8] During its weakening phase, the depression became elongated and its circulation center became exposed from the rest of the convection,[9] and at 1200 UTC that day Météo-France reclassified the storm as a tropical disturbance.
[10] In an area no longer sufficient to support strengthening, the disturbance gradually diffused,[11] and six hours later, Météo-France issued their last advisory on the system.
[15] Despite its ill-defined organization,[16] the depression was able to continue strengthening, reaching moderate tropical storm status on December 16 as it tracked southwest.
[17] Situated in a favorable atmospheric environment, a period of rapid intensification ensued after Amara reached tropical cyclone status on December 18.
[28] Strong winds, peaking at a measured 152 km/h (94 mph) in Pointe Canon,[27] resulted in widespread infrastructural damage, including the tearing of metal sheeting and uprooting of trees.
[33] In an area of only moderate inhibiting atmospheric conditions, the low was able to steadily intensify, reaching tropical cyclone status on December 18 as it tracked southwestward.
[38] Over the next day, Bruce transiently weakened to intense tropical cyclone status,[39] but later regained the maximum classification at 0000 UTC on December 22.
[41] At 1200 UTC on December 22, the storm was downgraded back to intense tropical cyclone status for a final time as it was becoming increasingly asymmetric.
[42][43] During the same timeframe Bruce began to curve around the western periphery of a nearby subtropical ridge, redirecting the cyclone's path towards the south.
[44][45] By the end of the day, Bruce was downgraded further to severe tropical storm intensity as the bulk of convection began to shear away from the low-level circulation center.
[citation needed] In late December 2013, computer forecast models began to predict the development and cyclogenesis of a disturbance within the monsoon trough north of Madagascar.
[49] At 1800 UTC on December 27, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) noted a discrete area of disturbed weather approximately 1,350 km (840 mi) north-northwest of Réunion that corresponded with model forecasts and had the potential to develop.
[56] At 1800 UTC that day, the depression intensified to moderate tropical storm intensity, thus receiving the name Bejisa by the Mauritius Meteorological Services.
[62] This intensification phase was short-lived, as an eyewall replacement cycle resulted in a slight deterioration and fluctuation of the storm's organization and structure.
By that time, a well-defined low-level circulation center had already developed, and computer models indicated that tropical cyclogenesis was a likely probability due to the storm's expected track within a favorable atmospheric environment.
[67] Forecasts early in the depression's history indicated that heavy rainfall was likely in areas of southwestern Madagascar,[68] though these rains would come during an extended period of abnormally dry weather.
Tracking southwest, Colin rapidly intensified much faster than initial predictions expected into an intense tropical cyclone during the succeeding 24 hours.
[75] An area of convection accompanied by a broad circulation was first noted within a region of moderate wind shear by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center early on January 15.
[citation needed] At 1800z, Météo-France noted that the system was maintaining a tight curved band pattern and the Madagascar Meteorological Service named the storm Deliwe.
[citation needed] Deliwe turned west and convection sheared away to the south, exposing the low-level circulation center, but the storm maintained a small region of gale-force winds for a brief period after Réunion issued their last advisory on the system.
At noon on February 10, Météo-France declared that Fobane had transitioned into a hybrid but warm-core cyclone, meriting the classification of subtropical depression.
[citation needed] Convection rapidly formed coinciding with a 10 millibar drop on February 11[81] and Fobane reached peak intensity during the next day while subtropical.
[83] On February 27, RSMC La Réunion reported that a subtropical depression had formed 725 km (450 mi) southeast of Durban, South Africa.
Due to favorable conditions and entering warm waters, it rapidly became Severe Tropical Storm Hellen early on March 30.
[85] During December, Severe Tropical Cyclone Bruce entered the Southwestern Indian Ocean basin from the Australian area of responsibility.