Error management theory (EMT) is an approach to perception and cognition biases originally coined by David Buss and Martie Haselton.
[1] Various biases in thinking and decision-making have been highlighted by Daniel Kahneman and have been shown to cause cognitive errors in psychological and economic decisions.
[3] Newer research suggests exceptions and refinements to the theory, such as postmenopausal effects, the possible projection of sexual and commitment self-interest,[4] and other differences including unrestricted sociosexuality.
[6] This is theorised to be likely due to the fact that the reproductive costs of sexual underperception are greater for men than the risk of making false positives.
In addition, men who are also more inclined to pursue a short term mating strategy exhibit a more prominent case of sexual overperception bias.
Haselton and Buss (2000) argued that these errors primarily stem from women's perceived desire for a committed relationship by a male counterpart.
This is due to the high cost of a false positive – a man not being committed and a woman accepting him – that could lead to raising a child without an investing mate, reputational damage and risk reducing chances of future courtship.
For instance, a long-tailed manakin bird has a mating dance that is instinctive and intricate and requires a young apprentice to perform as a duet to the female.
However, human courtship behaviour is more ambiguous and so requires these types of cognitive biases to avoid costly errors, in this case, sexual deception.
Women would underplay or fail to infer a psychological state that is there in order to prevent a false negative error.
If the chosen mate sexually deceives and then leaves her then the outcome is more costly for him than if his daughter is more cautious and underestimates intent.
The father shows the same skeptical commitment bias as his daughter, favouring the false negative error because it is less costly.
It is not sex or gender that predicts what type of cognitive bias might be expressed but rather the potential costs to reproductive success.
Haselton and Buss (2000)[8] found evidence for the perception biases studying young subjects; however, this was not representative of older females, who have passed through menopause.
Some recent studies researching error management theory have found men and women's perceptions of opposite gender sexual and commitment interest may be mitigated by other explanations.
[5] With a universal proclivity, it would be possible to document the bias across cultures and "across different demographic groups, including among men varying in age, ethnicity, and education level" within cultures[13] and in females based on their job status, health, levels of education and income equality.
[5] When investigated in Norway, one of the world's most gender egalitarian societies,[5] error management theory and its evolutionary explanation were supported.
In addition, the pattern of misperception of men and women held up across demographic groups differing in relationship status (singles versus partnered participants).
[14] This implies that instead of males and females falling victims of overperception and underperception respectively, both sexes project their own level of interest onto the individuals they are interacting with.