No-deal Brexit

In May 2019, the Speaker of the House of Commons advised that while a no-deal exit on 31 October 2019 was the current default position in law, it was not credible that Parliament could be deprived of the right to intervene should it wish to do so.

[8] In August 2019, The Guardian reported that British diplomats would pull out from the EU's decision making meetings "within days", under plans being drawn up by Downing Street.

[13] On 28 August 2019, the Johnson ministry reopened negotiations on the withdrawal agreement, but set as a pre-condition that the Irish backstop must be scrapped before doing so, a condition to which the EU had declared it would not agree.

)[16] The withdrawal agreement negotiated by Prime Minister Theresa May included an understanding that the UK would need to pay a "divorce" bill of £39 billion for previous and long-term commitments.

[18] In April 2019 the International Monetary Fund published analysis showing that, in the event of a no-deal Brexit occurring during 2019, the UK's GDP would be 3.5% smaller by 2021 than it would have been had a withdrawal agreement been made during that year (2019).

[19] In June 2019 the Office of Budget Responsibility published analysis predicting that the economy would shrink by 2% of GDP by 2021 if a no-deal Brexit occurred during 2019, but where the UK's exit was not "disruptive or disorderly".

[20] Economists at think tank The Policy Exchange criticised the Treasury, IMF and OECD forecasts for their reliance on a gravity model with what they said were incorrect assumptions.

Thomas Sampson, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen of the Centre for Economic Performance criticised this analysis as being based on outdated information and analytical models, and unjustified assumptions.

[22] A report prepared by the Central Bank of Ireland in August 2019 indicated that the City of London would be "largely unaffected" by a hard Brexit, even if it were to have an "adverse" impact on the rest of the country.

The report said that the City's financial services industry was sufficiently strong to withstand the impact of a no-deal Brexit and would remain "rich".

Minette Batters, the president of the National Farmers Union, said there would be no market for 40% of the UK's lamb meat in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

[31] Delivering a research study on the impact on worldwide exports to the UK, the director of international trade and commodities at UNCTAD considered that "Brexit is not only a regional affair.

[7] As of 2 April 2019[update] the UK government had issued 16 publications indicating advice on road, rail, air and marine transport, most of which were applicable to the no-deal scenario.

[40]: 7  EU—UK flights should not be affected for a time following a no-deal exit,[citation needed] subject to the EU and the UK respecting reciprocal rights in this area.

[citation needed] Post-Brexit open skies agreements were reached with the US and Canada in November and December 2018 respectively and these would also have applied in a "no-deal" situation.

[48]: 4 The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) analysed supply chain, organised stockpiles and additional refrigeration warehouse space.

One council also said that "special dietary requirements may be difficult to meet" and that fresh food might have to be replaced with frozen and tinned goods, while another mentioned the possibility of a return to rationing.

[58] The British Government intended to treat EU citizens already living in the UK as it had proposed in the draft Brexit withdrawal agreement, though there would have been some variations.

[60] In August 2019, Boris Johnson communicated that he wanted the freedom of movement which allowed EU citizens to travel to the UK to be immediately stopped on 31 October.

[61][62] Metropolitan Police Deputy assistant commissioner Richard Martin stated that a no-deal exit would mean a loss of Europe-wide tools, databases and European Arrest Warrant, which would have limited the ability to detain foreign suspects in the UK and pursue British fugitives in the EU.

[63] The National Police Chiefs Council asked "prominent individuals" to avoid inciting anger and said 10,000 officers were ready for deployment in the UK in case of conflicts between citizens.

[67] As a consequence, one million Green Cards were sent to insurance companies and brokers in the Republic of Ireland alone, as part of a 'prudent advance planning' for a possible no-deal Brexit.

[66] The UK's highest-ranking civil servant said in April 2019 that a no-deal Brexit would result in the return of direct rule in Northern Ireland.

[82] On 13 March 2019, the Department for International Trade released details of temporary tariff rates that would apply to imports if the United Kingdom left the EU without a deal.

Transport between the UK and the EU would have suffered from long delays, which the parties made efforts to ameliorate: Removal of Galileo satellite navigation infrastructure from the United Kingdom, Falklands and Ascension Islands is in the final stages of completion.

[citation needed] Accordingly, 200 measures were considered, including the possibility for the government to make and unmake laws by ordonnance (roughly equivalent to a statutory instrument).

[99] This included a 12-month period, assuming reciprocity, to allow British nationals to continue to live in France without titre de séjour.

[98] In July, Greece understood that "Boris Johnson's election as PM of the United Kingdom creates the conditions for a disorderly Brexit".

[101] According to the then British Brexit Secretary, Steve Barclay, 40% of the Republic's tangibles trade with continental Europe went via Dover/Calais, which (in a no-deal scenario) was expected to be seriously disrupted.

[97] Spain established a 42-page document of English-language royal decrees containing several chapters:[103] The Swedish government adopted certain transitional rules to facilitate British citizens in Sweden in the event of withdrawal without deal or if an agreement is approved too late to be legislated.