During June 7, the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) reported that a weak tropical low had emerged from the South Pacific Convergence Zone, to the northeast of the New Zealand territory of Tokelau.

[1] During June 9, the United States Naval Pacific Meteorology and Oceanography Center (NPMOC) issued a tropical cyclone formation alert for the system, before they initiated advisories on the system and designated it as Tropical Cyclone 38P at 00:00 UTC (12:00 Tuvalu Time (TVT)) on June 10.

[1][5][6] After being named, the system moved south-westwards towards Niulakita as it continued to gradually intensify becoming a category 2 tropical cyclone, before it passed just to the north of the island at about 03:00 UTC (15:00 TVT) on June 11.

[1][8] As a result of its slow movement keeping the system in an area of low vertical windshear, Keli continued to intensify with a cloud-filled eye appearing on satellite imagery.

[1][9] During June 12, the system accelerated south-eastwards and started to pose a threat to the French territory of Wallis and Futuna as it passed in between Niulakita and Nukulaelae.

[1][6][9] Later that day, at about 06:00 UTC (18:00 TVT), the FMS estimated that Keli had peaked in intensity as a category 3 severe tropical cyclone, with 10-minute sustained winds of 150 km/h (90 mph).

[2][11] After it had peaked in intensity, Keli encountered higher levels of vertical windshear which caused it to start to weaken and transition into an extratropical cyclone, before it passed about 55 km (35 mi) to the west of Wallis during June 13.

[17] Also on Nivalakita communications were cut with the telephone operator having to resort to sending a Morse code message, however as the storm re-curved and re-hit Tuvalu on June 14, it silenced the weak radio telegraph system.

[18][19][20][21] As a result of limited food supplies on Funafuti for the island nation, the then Governor General Sir Tulaga Manuella declared Tuvalu to be under a state of public of emergency with effect from June 12.