[62] On 15 September 2008, RIA Novosti reported that Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said: "There were excesses by all parties, but this was a war, and when you see on night, that you are being fired upon and you're on the move, while you're advancing to help Tskhinvali, then your response can not be precisely accurate and cannot avoid hurting anyone.
[75] In May 2009, Rossiyskaya Gazeta reported that hero of Russia, Denis Vetchinov, who died in South Ossetia, left the base of the Motor Rifle Division in Vladikavkaz for Tskhinvali on the early morning of 7 August 2008.
[87][88] However, according to the agreement between Russia and Georgia, only the presence of the Russian contingent of the Joint Peacekeeping Forces was allowed in South Ossetia and their number, staff composition, equipment, places of deployment and every movement should have been known to Tbilisi.
One anonymous mid-ranking commander said Georgian army attempted to take control over an important road to the north of Tskhinvali (leading to the Roki Tunnel), which was being defended by South Ossetian garrison near the village of Tbeti and the first Russian tanks arrived during this battle.
The recordings, allegedly proving that entry of Georgian troops into Tskhinvali was preceded by movement of part of a Russian armoured regiment into South Ossetia nearly a day earlier, were reviewed and assessed as valid by senior American government and military officials.
[115] On 5 August 2008, the tripartite monitoring group, which included Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) observers and representatives of Russian peacekeepers, issued a report that confirmed attacks against ethnic Georgian villages.
[138] However, the report said that Georgia had a non-use of force commitment under the international legal documents, such as the 1992 Sochi Agreement and 1996 Memorandum on Measures to Provide Security and Strengthen Mutual Trust between the Sides in the Georgian-South Ossetian Conflict.
[202] In September 2009, before the report was published, former Prime Minister of Estonia Mart Laar said in an interview that the commission forgot "that during the war, no Georgian soldier, no plane, no other military equipment left the legal, internationally recognized territory of Georgia.
[238] Moskovskij Komsomolets published an article where one senior officer of the mortar battery is documented as saying that Oleg Golovanov was the commander of an artillery reconnaissance platoon and was sitting on the roof of the peacekeepers' base and corrected fire.
[281] The cables reported that Assistant Secretary of State Philip H. Gordon was told by the French diplomatic adviser Jean-David Levitte in September 2009 that "it may take a generation before the Russian public will be able to accept their loss of influence, from Poland and the Baltics to Ukraine and Georgia.
"[282] In September 2009, United States Assistant Secretary of Defense Alexander Vershbow told Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin that the US non-lethal military aid to Georgia was "a matter of principle" and the US did "not accept any arms embargo".
[293][294] Prime Minister Lado Gurgenidze said on 8 August that South Ossetian separatists launched a deliberate attack on the Georgian civilians after Saakashvili's announcement of ceasefire and that 100-vehicle armed convoy had entered through the Roki Tunnel from Russia before the midnight.
"[310] In November 2008, Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili at a conference in Riga, claimed that the August conflict in the Caucasus began in Ukraine when the Russian Black Sea Fleet left the base six days before the large-scale hostilities.
Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried said that he told Georgian foreign minister Eka Tkeshelashvili (who said that her country was obliged to defend people) on 7 August to maintain unilateral ceasefire and not to engage the enemy forces.
"[357] In August 2008, Modest Kolerov, former head of the Department for international and cultural ties with foreign countries of the President's Office, admitted that the Kremlin had "a clear plan of action in the case of a conflict", and "the expediency with which the military operation was executed confirms that.
"[362] According to Bruce P. Jackson, a close Bush administration ally, at a conference in Dubrovnik around July 4, Daniel Fried from the State Department warned Saakashvili not to engage Russian forces because nobody would help him.
[388][389] Van den Brande later wrote in his rapport that "neither Russia nor the United States possess satellite images that could help either confirm or contradict the Georgian assertion that Russian troops passed the Roki tunnel prior to the attack on Tskhinvali.
One staff worker for Dick Cheney is quoted as expressing concern that American president George W. Bush had probably given Putin a "green light" to start hostilities against Georgia during the April 2008 meeting in Sochi.
[420] In 2013, sources connected with Swedish intelligence told newspaper Svenska Dagbladet, that Sweden's National Defence Radio Establishment (FRA) predicted that there would be a war between Russia and Georgia before the United States did.
[431] In August 2008, Pavel Felgenhauer, a Moscow-based analyst of military affairs, wrote in Novaya Gazeta that the Russian plan was for the Ossetians to deliberately provoke the Georgians so that "any response, harsh or soft, would be used as an occasion for the attack".
[470] James Sherr, head of Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, wrote in The Telegraph: "The current crisis demonstrates that the Cold War has not been replaced by common values between East and West, but by the revival of hard Realpolitik.
[475] On 13 August 2008, George Friedman, US military analyst, and a CEO of a US-based think-tank Stratfor, wrote in the institution's report: "There had been a great deal of shelling by the South Ossetians of Georgian villages for the previous three nights, but while possibly more intense than usual, artillery exchanges were routine.
"[441] On 16 August 2008, journalist Thom Shanker wrote that military experts did not assess Russian coordination of ground, air and naval operations, cyberattacks on Georgian websites and its best English speakers conducting public-relations campaign as coincidental.
Regarding the events of August 7/8, Allison states that "Moscow's insistence that its forces did not cross the Georgian border until Russian peacekeepers in Tskhinvali were in severe jeopardy has gained quite wide acceptance internationally.
The Georgian claim has, however, been strengthened by the release of telephone intercepts (lost for a month in the chaos of combat) indicating that at least part of a Russian armoured regiment had crossed into South Ossetia by late on 7 August."
[492] In 2008, Professor of Political Science Robert O. Freedman argued that it was support of the anti-American rogue states and terrorists that "set the stage for the invasion of Georgia as Putin sought to spread Russian influence throughout the South Caucasus as well as the Middle East."
[497] In June 2009, Svante Cornell wrote, "Many scholars have now shown Russia's invasion of Georgia had been long in the planning, premeditated and intended to deal a mortal blow to what Moscow saw as western encroachment in its backyard.
[502] In 2011, Dr. Ariel Cohen and Colonel Robert E. Hamilton wrote, "The Vladimir Putin-Dmitry Medvedev administration and the defense establishment formulated far-reaching goals when they carefully prepared over 2 1/2 years for a combined operations-style invasion of Georgia.
They further argued, "The use of Russian citizenship to create a “protected” population residing in a neighboring state to undermine its sovereignty is a slippery slope that may lead to a redrawing of the former Soviet borders, including in the Crimea (Ukraine), and possibly in Northern Kazakhstan."
Fawn and Nalbandov paid attention to the report that during the military exercise "Kavkaz 2008" in the North Caucasus, which concluded in early August, a leaflet entitled "Soldier, know your probable enemy" (describing Georgia), was distributed among the Russian trainees.