Stocks for the Long Run

"[2] James K. Glassman, a financial columnist for The Washington Post, called it one of the 10 best investment books of all time.

Even though the book has been termed "the buy and hold Bible",[4] the author occasionally concedes that there are market inefficiencies that can be exploited.

According to Siegel's web site the next edition will include a chapter on globalization with the premise that the growth of emerging economies will soon out pace that of the developed nations.

Explanation of abnormal behavior: In Chapter 2, he argues (Figure 2.1) that given a sufficiently long period of time, stocks are less risky than bonds, where risk is defined as the standard deviation of annual return.

argue that the book uses a perspective that is too long to be applicable to today's long-term investors who, in many cases, are not investing for a 20–30 year period.

Economist Robert Shiller of Yale University, wrote in his book Irrational Exuberance (Princeton, 2000) even a 20 or 30 year holding period is not necessarily as risk-free as Siegel implies.

Purchasing stocks at a high valuation based on the CAPE ratio can yield poor returns over the long term, as well as significant drawdowns in the interim.

[11] The yield on 10 Year Treasurys bottomed in early 1940s and then peaked at 15.6% in late 1981, and the long term decline in rates has continued.