[1] While working at the Federal Reserve, Adrian made substantial contributions to the role of financial intermediaries in monetary policy transmission, with Hyun-Song Shin.
[7][9] He also documented how the inversion of the yield curve can be viewed as a causal transmission channel for monetary policy tightening, with Hyun-Song Shin and Arturo Estrella [Wikidata].
[12] This measure, which takes into account spillover and contagion effects between asset classes and industries, was used to stress test banks following the great recession.
[19] This work led to a novel model for economic forecasting, under which multimodal distributions (allowing both "good" and "bad" outcomes) arise naturally under tight financial conditions.
[20] With Patrick Bolton and Alissa Kleinnijenhuis, Adrian has conducted a first empirical study of the costs and benefits of phasing out coal around the world, and documented a large net social gain on the order of trillions.