Early 1990s recession in the United States

[3][4] Belated recovery from the 1990–1991 recession contributed to Bill Clinton's victory in the 1992 presidential election over incumbent President George H. W. Bush.

The immediate cause of the recession was a loss of consumer and business confidence as a result of the 1990 oil price shock, coupled with an already weak economy.

[2][5] Prior to the onset of the early 1990s recession, the nation enjoyed robust job growth and a declining unemployment rate.

[7] Perhaps the largest impact on the protracted period of unemployment following the early 90s recession were large layoffs in defense related industries.

These cutbacks also spilled over into transportation, wholesale, trade, and other sectors tied to defense related durable goods manufacturing.

[9] In addition, consumer confidence moved at an erratic pace, limiting the surge in consumption expenditures that is typical of recovery periods.

Treasury yield spreads
Inverted yield curve in late 1989 and early 1990
30 year minus 3 month
10 year minus 2 year
10 year minus 3 month
10 year minus Federal funds rate
Inverted yield curves cause unemployment to go up, to get inflation or housing prices down
Unemployment rate
10 year Treasury bond minus 2 year Treasury bond