Futures studies

There is a debate as to whether this discipline is an art or science, and it is sometimes described as pseudoscience;[5][6] nevertheless, the Association of Professional Futurists was formed in 2002,[7] developing a Foresight Competency Model in 2017,[8] and it is now possible to study it academically, for example at the FU Berlin in their master's course.

Second, futures studies typically attempts to gain a holistic or systemic view based on insights from a range of different disciplines, generally focusing on the STEEP[15] categories of Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political.

Futures studies does not generally focus on short term predictions such as interest rates over the next business cycle, or of managers or investors with short-term time horizons.

[17] Johan Galtung and Sohail Inayatullah argue that the search for grand patterns goes all the way back to Sima Qian (145–90 BC) and Ibn Khaldun (1332–1406).

In 1758 the French economist François Quesnay proceeded to establish a quantitative model of the entire economy, known as the Tableau Economique, so that future production could be planned.

[20] The Industrial Revolution was on the verge of spreading across the European continent, when in 1798 Thomas Malthus published An essay on the principle of Population as it affects the Future Improvement of Society.

Planning became part of the political decision-making process after World War II as capitalist and communist governments across the globe produced predictive forecasts.

The long-term planning of military and industrial Cold War efforts peaked in the 1960s when peace research emerged as a counter-movement[28] and the positivist idea of "the one predictable future" was called into question.

[31] Future studies established itself as an academic field when social scientists began to question positivism as a plausible theory of knowledge and instead turned to pluralism.

Pioneers of global future studies include Pierre Wack of Royal Dutch Shell, the Interfuture group at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Club of Rome.

Questions are posed to scientists, business owners, government officials, landowners, and nonprofit representatives to establish a development plan for an urban area, region, industry, or economy.

[53] In futures research "weak signals" may be understood as advanced, noisy and socially situated indicators of change in trends and systems that constitute raw informational material for enabling anticipatory action.

On May 27, 2012, hundreds of people gathered for a "Take the Flour Back" demonstration at Rothamsted Research in Harpenden, UK, to oppose a publicly funded trial of genetically modified wheat.

This concept may be embedded in standard foresight projects and introduced into anticipatory decision-making activity in order to increase the ability of social groups adapt to surprises arising in turbulent business environments.

Nothing had happened in the past that could point to such a possibility and yet it had a huge impact on everyday life in the United States, from simple tasks like how to travel via airplane to deeper cultural values.

Wild card events might also be natural disasters, such as Hurricane Katrina, which can force the relocation of huge populations and wipe out entire crops or completely disrupt the supply chain of many businesses.

Addressing s-risks involves ethical foresight and robust frameworks to prevent scenarios where suffering could persist or multiply across vast scales, including in space exploration or simulated realities.

The unrealistic expectations and subsequent disillusionment that virtual reality experienced in the 1990s and early 2000s is an example of the middle phases encountered before a technology can begin to be integrated into society.

The curriculum incorporates a blend of the essential theory, a framework and methods for doing the work, and a focus on application for clients in business, government, nonprofits, and society in general.

[84] Chinese philosopher Kang Youwei and French demographer Georges Vacher de Lapouge stressed in the late 19th century that the trend cannot proceed indefinitely on the finite surface of the globe.

Futures studies education methods for youth typically include age-appropriate collaborative activities, games, systems thinking and scenario building exercises.

"His work is called 'future casting'—using ethnographic field studies, technology research, trend data, and even science fiction to create a pragmatic vision of consumers and computing."

Additionally, Dennis Livingston, a literature and Futures journal critic says, "The depiction of truly alternative societies has not been one of science fiction's strong points, especially" preferred, normative envisages.

The 2002 movie adaptation of Philip K. Dick's short stort, Minority Report, had a group of consultants to build a realistic vision of the future, including futurist Peter Schwartz.

[107] TV shows such as HBO's Westworld and Channel 4/Netflix's Black Mirror follow many of the rules of futures studies to build the world, the scenery and storytelling in a way futurists would in experiential scenarios and works.

[110] Singapore's early formal efforts in strategic foresight began in 1991 with the establishment of the Risk Detection and Scenario Planning Office in the Ministry of Defence.

[112] In the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, announced in September 2016 that all government ministries were to appoint Directors of Future Planning.

[115] In 2018, the United States General Accountability Office (GAO) created the Center for Strategic Foresight to enhance its ability to "serve as the agency's principal hub for identifying, monitoring, and analyzing emerging issues facing policymakers."

Its planning is meant to link and embed scenarios in "organizational processes such as strategy making, innovation, risk management, public affairs, and leadership development.

[121] Potential global catastrophic risks include but are not limited to climate change, AI takeover, nanotechnology, nuclear warfare, total war, and pandemics.