Prior to the storm's arrival in Baja California Sur, hurricane watches and warnings were issued for coastal locations.

While approaching the Lesser Antilles the following day, the disturbance lost most of its thunderstorm activity and remained poorly organized across the remainder of its trek through the Caribbean Sea and Central America.

On October 10, the wave emerged into the East Pacific basin, at which time the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began monitoring the system.

[1][2] Characterized with disorganized convection, a broad surface trough formed in association with the wave the same day and environmental conditions were expected to favor gradual development.

[3] Initially, upper-level winds were only marginally favorable, and although the thunderstorms remained disorganized, the NHC estimated a 50% chance for development by early on October 12.

[2] Tracking westward around the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge,[7] the depression steadily strengthened, intensifying into Tropical Storm Paul six hours after designation.

On October 14, an upper-level low positioned west of the Baja California peninsula led to a break in the ridge which subsequently caused the tropical cyclone to slow and turn northward.

[2] Convective bands in association with Paul gained curvature and a central dense overcast feature became visible on satellite imagery.

[9] At 06:00 UTC on October 15, Paul was upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane on the SSHWS while located approximately 595 mi (960 km) southwest of Cabo San Lucas.

[12] Following an abrupt increase in satellite intensity estimates, Paul was upgraded to a Category 3 major hurricane on the SSHWS, the fifth of the season, at 18:00 UTC on October 15.

[14] The circulation became tilted north-northeast with height, likely a byproduct of south-southwesterly wind shear,[15] and the system was downgraded to a Category 2 hurricane at 12:00 UTC on October 16.

Accelerating northwestward within deep southwesterly flow, continued unfavorable upper-level winds caused the low-level center to rapidly separate from the convective mass.

[2] When the system first posed a threat to Mexico at 09:00 UTC on October 15, a tropical storm watch was posted for a portion of the central Baja California Peninsula.

[22] State civil protection authorities brought teams from the federal electricity and water commissions to help maintain services during the storm.

In addition, the state government opened 143 shelters,[23] including 11 in the towns of Cabo San Lucas, La Paz, Ciudad Constitución, and Loreto,[24] which had a capacity of 30,617 persons.

[32][nb 1] In all, approximately 1,000 dwellings were damaged in relation to Hurricane Paul;[33] many other homes across the region were left without electricity and running water.