India's three-stage nuclear power programme

The ultimate focus of the programme is on enabling the thorium reserves of India to be utilised in meeting the country's energy requirements.

[9] The first Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor has been repeatedly delayed[10] – and is currently expected to be commissioned by October 2022 [11] – and India continues to import thousands of tonnes of uranium from Russia, Kazakhstan, France, and Uzbekistan.

[20] Indian energy resource base was estimated to be capable of yielding a total electric power output of the order shown in the table below.

[39] According to Siegfried Hecker, a former director (1986–1997) of the Los Alamos National Laboratory in the United States, "India has the most technically ambitious and innovative nuclear energy programme in the world.

Also, in March 2011, large deposits of uranium were discovered in the Tummalapalle belt in the southern part of the Kadapa basin in Andhra Pradesh.

In the first stage of the programme, natural uranium fueled pressurised heavy water reactors (PHWR) produce electricity while generating plutonium-239 as by-product.

PHWRs was a natural choice for implementing the first stage because it had the most efficient reactor design in terms of uranium utilisation, and the existing Indian infrastructure in the 1960s allowed for quick adoption of the PHWR technology.

[43] Several other sources estimate that the known reserves of natural uranium in the country permit only about 10 GW of capacity to be built through indigenously fueled PHWRs.

[48] Almost the entire existing base of Indian nuclear power (4780 MW) is composed of first stage PHWRs of the IPHWR series, with the exception of the two Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) units at Tarapur.

Bharatiya Nabhikiya Vidyut Nigam Ltd (Bhavini), a public sector company under the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE), has been given the responsibility to build the fast breeder reactors in India.

According to the three-stage programme, Indian nuclear energy could grow to about 10 GW through PHWRs fueled by domestic uranium, and the growth above that would have to come from FBRs till about 50GW.

[63] According to replies given in Q&A in the Indian Parliament on two separate occasions, 19 August 2010 and 21 March 2012, large scale thorium deployment is only to be expected "3–4 decades after the commercial operation of fast breeder reactors with short doubling time".

[80] It is expected to generate 65% of its power from thorium and can also be configured to accept other fuel types in full core including enriched uranium and uranium–plutonium MOX.

[83] AHWR would offer very little growth for the fuel build up that is essential for wide deployment of the third stage, and perhaps the impact on the accumulated fissile material could even be negative.

Dr Anil Kakodkar, former chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission called this a mega science project and a "necessity" for humankind.

"[94] An independent study arrives at roughly the same conclusion, "India’s current uranium production of less than 300 tons/year can meet at most, two-thirds of its needs for civil and military nuclear fuel.

[97] The estimated stagnation of the nuclear power at about 21GW by 2020 is likely due to the fact that even the short "doubling time" of the breeder reactors is quite slow, on the order of 10–15 years.

[21][98][99][100] As per research data, the U238–Pu cycle has the shortest doubling time by a large margin, and that technology's compounded yearly fissile material growth rate has been calculated as follows, after making some basic assumptions about the operating features of the fast breeder reactors.

It was realised that the best way to get access to the requisite fissile material would be through uranium imports, which was not possible without ending India's nuclear isolation by U.S. and the NSG.

[41] In a U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing, Under Secretary for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns' prepared remarks stated that "India had made this the central issue in the new partnership developing between our countries".

[106] Indian government proceeded to negotiate and execute the Indo–US Nuclear Deal, which then paved the way for the NSG waiver on international uranium imports to India in 2008.

[107] According to one foreign analyst, the deal could "over time… result in India being weaned away from its… three-phase nuclear program involving FBRs and advanced PHWRs.

"[108] Anil Kakodkar, then Chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission, went to the extent of making public, the milder position of keeping the country's indigenous fast breeder programme out of the ambit of international safeguards, saying "in the long run, the energy that will come out from the nuclear fuel resources available in India (from domestic uranium and thorium mines) should always form the larger share of the nuclear energy programme..." and "our strategy should be such that the integrity and autonomy of our being able to develop the three-stage nuclear power programme, be maintained, we cannot compromise that.

"[109] The full demand of the Indian scientists, to have the ability to reprocess plutonium from spent fuel of the imported reactors (goes beyond the defensive position of Kakodkar), appears to have been met in the final deal.

[115] The 63 GW expected by 2032 will be achieved by setting up 16 indigenous Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors (PHWR), of which ten is to be based on reprocessed uranium.

[116] Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh stated in 2009 that the nation could generate up to 470 GW of power by 2050 if it managed the three-stage program well.

"This will sharply reduce our dependence on fossil fuels and will be a major contribution to global efforts to combat climate change", he reportedly said.

[9] According to the Chairman of India's Atomic Energy Commission, Srikumar Banerjee, without the implementation of fast breeders[119] the presently available uranium reserves of 5.469 million tonnes can support 570 GWe till 2025.

If the total identified and undiscovered uranium reserves of 16 million tonnes are brought online, the power availability can be extended till the end of the century.

While calling for more research into thorium as an energy source and the country's indigenous three-stage programme, he said, "The world always felt there would be a miracle.