Earthquake cycle

[1][5] The Parkfield portion of the San Andreas fault is a well-known example where similarly located M6.0 earthquakes have been instrumentally recorded every 30–40 years.

[6] After Harry F. Reid proposed the elastic-rebound theory in 1910 based on the surface rupture record from the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, and accumulated geodetic data demonstrated continual stress loading from the plate motion, a theory of the "cyclic" earthquake re-occurrence began to form in the late twentieth century.

[7] Although simple models of earthquake recurrence are fully predictable, many real-world factors can significantly alter cycle length, including uneven stress accumulation, time-varying crustal strengths, and fluid migration.

[12] A significant amount of aseismic slow slip and creep during the interseismic period has also been discovered on both subduction zones and continental faults through GPS and InSAR measurements.

[13] Three repeated continental earthquakes in the Mongolia within the past 50,000 years have also been discovered from sediment-layer offset and growth records.

[16] The rate-and-state friction relation is influenced by a set of factors including thermal activation, the real area of contact (at the atomic scale), and molecular bonding effects.

Based on the rate-and-state friction law, the transfer from slow-slip events to rapid rupture earthquakes related to geometric and elastic parameters of the fault zone has been discovered.

[21] Although many scientists still view earthquake predictions as challenging or impossible,[22] earthquake-cycle theories and modeling have long been consulted to produce hazard forecast values.

For example, empirical models have been applied to forecast the likelihood of large earthquakes hitting the San Francisco Bay area in the near future.