Effects Other wikis Hurricane Mitch's meteorological history began with its origins over Africa as a tropical wave and lasted until its dissipation as an extratropical cyclone north of the United Kingdom.

After becoming disorganized due to wind shear from a nearby upper-level low, Mitch quickly intensified in response to improving conditions which included warm waters and good outflow.

Initially, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and various tropical cyclone forecast models anticipated a turn to the north, threatening the Yucatán Peninsula.

Mitch accelerated to the northeast ahead of a cold front, moving across the Yucatán Peninsula before striking southwestern Florida on November 5.

The wave reached the eastern Caribbean Sea on October 18, and over the subsequent few days developed an organizing area of convection, or thunderstorms.

The system organized enough to prompt a Hurricane Hunters investigation,[1] which observed a small circulation center and flight-level tropical storm force winds.

[2] As a result, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) estimated the system had developed into a tropical cyclone by 0000 UTC on October 22, located 415 mi (665 km) south of Kingston, Jamaica.

[2] The depression remained nearly stationary in the southwestern Caribbean Sea,[4] eventually executing a small loop about 260 mi (420 km) east of San Andrés island.

[5] When Mitch was upgraded to tropical storm status, it had a small radius of maximum winds, only 9 mi (14 km) at flight-level.

[13] The NHC noted the potential for weak steering currents when the hurricane reached the western Caribbean,[14] and the agency anticipated a general northward turn toward the Yucatán Peninsula.

By late on October 26, the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) had forecast the hurricane to continue to the west and strike Belize, while the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) computer model anticipated a general movement to the north in the western Caribbean.

[1] Due to a weak mid-level anticyclone over the Gulf of Mexico that was not observed operationally, Mitch began a slow southerly motion on October 27, passing very near Guanaja.

[22] Steadily deteriorating, Mitch weakened below major hurricane intensity late on October 28,[1] due to land interaction, upwelling, and possibly an eyewall replacement cycle.

[1] An approaching trough weakened the ridge in the western Gulf of Mexico, allowing Mitch to make the long-intended turn to the northwest.

[1] Although the surface low pressure center dissipated, the remnants of Mitch maintained a circulation aloft that reached the Bay of Campeche on November 2.

[31] Early on November 4, Mitch made landfall just north of Campeche with winds of about 40 mph (65 km/h), and it quickly weakened into a tropical depression while crossing the Yucatán Peninsula.

It quickly crossed the state, producing five tornadoes and tropical storm-force winds, and the storm emerged into the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.

[1] Late on November 5, a Hurricane Hunters flight could not locate a well-defined center associated with Mitch, instead observing an elongated circulation embedded in the cold front.