Scottish independence
The question of full independence, or the less controversial home rule, did not re-enter the political mainstream until 1960, after the famous Wind of Change speech by Conservative Prime Minister Harold Macmillan.
[19][20] The Scottish National Party (SNP) won their second-ever seat in the House of Commons in 1967, when Winnie Ewing was the unexpected winner of the 1967 Hamilton by-election.
Following their election to Parliament, the SNP MPs pressed for the creation of a Scottish Assembly: a viewpoint which was given added credibility by the conclusions of the Kilbrandon Commission.
[22] The resignation of Harold Wilson from office in 1976 brought James Callaghan to power, but his small majority was eroded by several by-election losses, and the government became increasingly unpopular.
[29][30] The SNP group was reduced from 11 MPs to 2 at the 1979 general election, while devolution was opposed by the Conservative governments led by Margaret Thatcher and John Major.
[33] The Labour Party won the 1997 general election in a landslide, and Donald Dewar as Secretary of State for Scotland agreed to the proposals for a Scottish Parliament.
[89] She set out a three-stage process, starting with the Scottish Government making a request for a Section 30 order (parliamentary powers) to hold a referendum.
[94] In AXA General Insurance Ltd and others v HM Advocate and others, the Deputy President of the Supreme Court, Lord Hope of Craighead, stated that "the sovereignty of the Crown in Parliament [...] is the bedrock of the British constitution.
Some legal opinion following the Supreme Court of Canada's decision on what steps Quebec would need to take to secede is that Scotland would be unable to unilaterally declare independence under international law if the UK Government permitted a referendum on an unambiguous question on secession.
[107][108] The SNP have not sought a unilateral act, but rather state that a positive vote for independence in a referendum would have "enormous moral and political force... impossible for a future [Westminster] government to ignore",[109] and hence would give the Scottish Government a mandate to negotiate for the passage of an act of the UK Parliament providing for Scotland's secession, in which Westminster renounces its sovereignty over Scotland.
[94] In the Scottish Government's written case published in July 2022, the Lord Advocate observed that "the Union of the Kingdoms of Scotland and England has been superseded as a matter of law and exists only as an historical fact.
In the event of independence, the Scottish Government planned to increase domestic creative production opportunities, such as by setting up a new national broadcaster, while maintaining access to current TV channels and with no additional cost to viewers and listeners.
"[122] In January 2023, the UK Government blocked the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill from going to royal assent after it passed the Scottish Parliament 86 to 39.
The UK Government overruled the bill by using for the first ever time Section 35 powers under the Scotland Act; the justification for the move was that they believed it would impact equalities legislation, which is reserved to Westminster.
[132]: 231 Journalist Peter Jones writes that calculating the real economic impacts of independence (i.e. whether Scotland would be richer or poorer outwith the UK) is "an extremely hazard, if not impossible, task".
[128] The nationalist position is that only an independent Scotland can fully utilise and exploit its national resources, including North Sea oil and gas, for the benefit of its population.
[141] Investment in and production from the North Sea oilfields dropped sharply after Conservative chancellor George Osborne imposed punitive taxes, undercutting the projected revenue an independent Scotland could claim.
The paper's analysis suggests this would be due to the combined effect of lower than expected tax revenues, Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic, which have increased the country's budget deficit.
If correct, this would mean Scotland would need to raise taxes or cut public spending[158] by the equivalent of £1765 per person after independence to make the deficit sustainable.
[159] A report published by the Sustainable Growth Commission set up by the SNP to make recommendations on the economy of an independent Scotland stated that the deficit would need to be cut to 3 per cent of GDP.
[163][164] The chairman of HSBC, Douglas Flint, warned in August 2014 of uncertainty if there was an independent Scottish currency, or if Scotland joined the Eurozone, which could result in capital flight.
Dame DeAnne Julius, a founding member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, has called this a "hugely risky experiment for Scotland".
[178] Under the Scottish Government's 2014 plans for independence, Scotland would have applied to become a full and equal member of the United Nations, NATO and the European Union and many other international organisations.
While the ‘social union’ of shared histories, sport, culture, languages, and family ties would continue as before, a renewed Scottish democracy would be a force for good across these islands".
[185] The Scottish Government proposes that a reformed British-Irish Council would "provide a formal forum for managing some of these relationships, complementing regular bilateral discussions".
[185] Beginning close to the time of the 2014 referendum, it became a topic of discussion across British news outlets that Doncaster in South Yorkshire, England has a claim to belonging to Scotland, by technicality.
The SNP wants Scotland to keep the monarchy (see personal union) and become an independent Commonwealth realm, similar to Canada, Australia or New Zealand.
[212][213][214]'Scotland in Union' has been subject to criticism after records of its donor base were leaked, including many of the UK's wealthy elite, with major landowners, Lords, aristocrats and CEOs of companies all listed.
[241] Polls conducted in early March 2021, following testimony by Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon at a Holyrood parliamentary inquiry, showed narrow leads for "No".
In a separate UK-wide poll, for the first time majority support (55%) was expressed across the UK for the right of the Scottish Government to hold an independence referendum.
