Shrinkage (statistics)

This idea is complementary to overfitting and, separately, to the standard adjustment made in the coefficient of determination to compensate for the subjective effects of further sampling, like controlling for the potential of new explanatory terms improving the model by chance: that is, the adjustment formula itself provides "shrinkage."

Many standard estimators can be improved, in terms of mean squared error (MSE), by shrinking them towards zero (or any other finite constant value).

The optimal choice of divisor (weighting of shrinkage) depends on the excess kurtosis of the population, as discussed at mean squared error: variance, but one can always do better (in terms of MSE) than the unbiased estimator; for the normal distribution a divisor of n+1 gives one which has the minimum mean squared error.

The use of shrinkage estimators in the context of regression analysis, where there may be a large number of explanatory variables, has been described by Copas.

Hausser and Strimmer "develop a James-Stein-type shrinkage estimator, resulting in a procedure that is highly efficient statistically as well as computationally.

Despite its simplicity, it outperforms eight other entropy estimation procedures across a diverse range of sampling scenarios and data-generating models, even in cases of severe undersampling.