Meteorological history of Hurricane Patricia

A well-defined eye developed within an intense central dense overcast and Patricia grew from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in just 24 hours—a near-record pace.

On October 23, two Hurricane Hunter missions both revealed the storm to have acquired maximum sustained winds of 205 mph (335 km/h) and a pressure of 879 mbar (hPa; 25.96 inHg).

Since the peak intensity was assessed to have occurred between the missions, the National Hurricane Center ultimately estimated Patricia to have acquired winds of 215 mph (345 km/h) and pressure of 872 mbar (hPa; 25.75 inHg).

[4] A tropical wave crossed the Caribbean and eventually reached Central America on October 15; the two systems merged the following day near the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

[2] A concurrent Tehuantepec gap wind event on the western side of the gyre, complemented by anticyclonic flow behind a cold front, enhanced vorticity and spurred the formation of an elongated area of low pressure on October 17.

A strong pulse in the Madden–Julian oscillation—a propagating climate pattern associated with increased tropical cyclogenesis[6]—may have aided in creating favorable conditions for further development.

[2] Located south of a mid-level ridge and the continuing gap wind event, the nascent depression moved slowly west-southwest on October 20.

The depression achieved tropical storm status by 00:00 UTC on October 21; the National Hurricane Center (NHC) assigned it the name Patricia accordingly.

[10][11] Once clear of the hindering factors, convection blossomed over Patricia late on October 21 and a central dense overcast formed over the center.

In the following 12 hours, a well-defined 12 mi (19 km) wide eye formed within a ring of intense convection—with cloud tops of −80 to −90 °C (−112 to −130 °F)—forming "an almost perfectly symmetric [central dense overcast]".

[18] This trend continued throughout the rapid intensification period, resulting in some of the largest errors on record through 48 hours; they were the worst-ever for the Eastern Pacific since the NHC took over operations for the basin in 1988.

[2] During the overnight hours of October 22–23, Patricia turned northwest and decelerated slightly as it reached the western edge of the mid-level ridge.

[2] Based on continued improvement of the hurricane's satellite appearance, Patricia is assessed to have achieved its peak intensity around 12:00 UTC on October 23; the storm was situated about 150 mi (240 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.

Maximum winds are estimated at 215 mph (345 km/h) alongside a pressure of 872 mbar (hPa; 25.75 inHg), making Patricia the second-most intense tropical cyclone ever observed.

It is possible that Patricia surpassed the all-time record of 870 mbar (hPa; 25.69 inHg) set by Typhoon Tip in 1979 given the rate of deepening observed during the early morning mission.

[2][19] Little change in strength took place for the next six hours; a shortwave trough crossing the Baja California Peninsula turned Patricia to the northeast and induced acceleration.

By 20:30 UTC, the final pass by reconnaissance, the hurricane's flight-level winds fell by 60 mph (97 km/h) and its central pressure rose at 8 mbar (hPa; 0.236 inHg) per hour.

[19] Patricia's winds at landfall are relatively uncertain, and the 150 mph (240 km/h) value is based upon the Knaff–Zehr–Courtney pressure–wind relationship and an extrapolation of a 54 mbar (hPa; 1.59 inHg) filling using the Dvorak technique.

[2] Even faster weakening ensued through October 24 as the hurricane traversed the Sierra Madre mountains;[2] its eye disappeared from satellite imagery within hours of moving ashore.

[28][29] The system degraded into a tropical depression by 12:00 UTC as little organized convection remained, and the storm dissipated shortly thereafter over central Mexico.

[2] This fell just short of the world-record intensification set by Typhoon Forrest in 1983, which featured a pressure drop of 100 mbar (hPa; 2.953 inHg) in just under 24 hours.

Similarly, the hurricane featured the fastest weakening while still over water in NHC's area of responsibility, with a pressure rise of 54 mbar (hPa; 1.59 inHg) in the five hours before it made landfall.

Satellite image of a weak tropical depression over open waters south of Mexico. The system features disorganized cloud cover that spirals inward toward the storm's center.
Patricia as a tropical depression on October 20
An exceptionally well-developed hurricane located southwest of Mexico. The storm features a well-defined, clear eye surrounded by a large, mostly symmetric ring of clouds. Prominent bands of cloud cover extend north and south of the storm center.
Hurricane Patricia shortly after its record peak intensity on October 23
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The flight crew of NOAA43 commemorate the record observation of 879 mbar (hPa; 25.96 inHg) after their final mission into Hurricane Patricia on October 23. [ nb 2 ]
Infrared satellite image of Hurricane Patricia at record peak intensity captured by GOES-13/15
Satellite animation of a powerful hurricane weakening as it moves over southwestern Mexico. During this period, the storm's well-defined, clear eye becomes cloud-filled and the hurricane's overall cloud pattern degrades.
Satellite animation of Patricia from 13:15–23:45 UTC on October 23. During this time, the hurricane weakened at an unprecedented rate over water because of an eyewall replacement cycle before striking Mexico; however, it still retained winds of 150 mph (240 km/h) as it moved ashore.
Refer to caption
The remnants of Patricia—shortly after dissipation as a tropical cyclone—and a frontal boundary draped across the western Gulf Coast on October 24
A comparison of Dvorak-enhanced infrared satellite signatures of Hurricanes Patricia and Linda (1997) at their peak intensity. A "cold dark gray" ring surrounding Patricia's eye represents cloud tops of −81 °C (−114 °F) or colder, more intense than the "cold medium gray" ring surrounding Linda's eye.
Comparison of Dvorak-enhanced (BD curve) infrared imagery of Hurricanes Linda (left) and Patricia (right) . The "cold dark gray" ring around Patricia's eye represents cloud tops of −81 °C (−114 °F) or colder, more intense than the "cold medium gray" ring surrounding Linda's eye. [ 41 ]