[3] A low pressure area formed on September 22 near Curaçao in the south-central Caribbean Sea; at that point, the NHC assessed a high chance of tropical cyclone development.

[4] The thunderstorm activity remained disorganized,[5] but on September 23 the convection increased and became better organized,[6] and curved bands developed throughout the day.

[1] Late that day, a Hurricane Hunters flight into the system confirmed the development of a well-defined circulation, and the NHC initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen about 485 mi (781 km) east of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua.

Tropical cyclone prediction models anticipated a path near or over Nicaragua, followed by Matthew stalling near the Yucatán Peninsula due to a collapse in steering currents.

There was uncertainty in the timing of the latter events, and the NHC noted that great intensification could occur if the storm remained over warm waters; this was due to favorable conditions, such as sea surface temperatures exceeding 30 °C (86 °F) and an upper-level anticyclone providing good outflow.

[8] As the storm gradually strengthened during the morning of September 24 after a burst in convection, and the National Hurricane Center noted that there was a considerable uncertainty over the path Matthew would take in the long run.

"[9][10] Tropical Storm Matthew attained its peak intensity on September 24, 18:00, UTC, with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a minimum barometric pressure of 998 mbar (998 hPa; 29.5 inHg).

Only an hour later, Matthew made landfall 23 mi (37 km) south of the border of Nicaragua and Honduras on September 24 with winds of 60 mph (97 km/h).

[12] Matthew's remnants dissipated completely over Mexico, however increased moisture and convection throughout the Bay of Campeche and Caribbean Sea contributed to the development of Tropical Storm Nicole only two days after.

Additionally, the country's Institute of Seismology, Vulcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology (Insivumeh) noted that Guatemala had experienced the most rain since the 1940s as a result of previous storm systems.

[15] The precursor tropical wave produced showers and thunderstorms across the Leeward Islands on September 22, and a station on Saint Lucia reported a wind gust of 48 mph (77 km/h).

[5] In Caracas, Venezuela, heavy rains associated with Matthew triggered significant flooding that destroyed several homes, killing at least seven people.

[29] Matthew made landfall in Central America as a tropical storm, causing torrential rainfalls and local flooding in several parts of mainly Honduras, Belize and Guatemala.

[34] Heavy flooding across the country caused the collapse of several bridges and destroyed roads and communication lines, making it impossible to contact all affected communities.

The Governor of the state, Ulises Ruiz Ortiz, earlier said that it is too early to say how many victims were trapped or buried under the earth, but initially estimated that number of missing could be 600 to 1,000 people.

Mexican Red Cross stated that it was sending 40 health specialists, rescue dogs and 15 emergency vehicles to the area.