Effects of climate change

As the climate changes it impacts the natural environment with effects such as more intense forest fires, thawing permafrost, and desertification.

Ice sheets and oceans absorb the vast majority of excess heat in the atmosphere, delaying effects there but causing them to accelerate and then continue after surface temperatures stabilize.

[21] To assess changes in Earth's past climate scientists have studied tree rings, ice cores, corals, and ocean and lake sediments.

For instance such research can look at historical data for a region and conclude that a specific heat wave was more intense due to climate change.

[36][37][38][39][40] As a result of changes in climatic patterns and rising global temperatures, extreme weather events like heatwaves and heavy precipitation are occurring more frequently and with increasing severity.

[51] This would lead to outbursts of very cold winter weather across parts of Eurasia[52] and North America and incursions of very warm air into the Arctic.

[53][54][55] Some stadies found a weakening of the AMOC by about 15% since 1950, causing cooling in the North Atlantic and warming in the Gulf Stream region.

[64][65][66] Atmospheric turbulence dangerous for aviation (hard to predict or that cannot be avoided by flying higher) probably increases due to climate change.

Melting ice and extreme rainfall also increase secondary hazards, particularly lahars and disturb eruption forecasting by inducing ground displacements.

Glacial earthquakes in Greenland for example, peak in frequency in the summer months and are increasing over time, possibly in response to global warming.

Earthquake sensors around the world detected the Earth's vibration but the planetary-scale of the event was so unprecedented that at first scientists failed to understand it.

[108] The melting of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets will continue to contribute to sea level rise over long time-scales.

[105]: 1215 Future melt of the West Antarctic ice sheet is potentially abrupt under a high emission scenario, as a consequence of a partial collapse.

[105]: 1269–1270  A partial collapse of the ice sheet would lead to rapid sea level rise and a local decrease in ocean salinity.

[109]: 595–596  The complete loss of the West Antarctic ice sheet would cause over 5 metres (16 ft) of sea level rise.

Movements of species to higher latitudes and altitudes,[129] changes in bird migrations, and shifting of the oceans' plankton and fish from cold- to warm-adapted communities are other impacts.

The higher frequency of droughts in the first two decades of the 21st century and other data signal that a tipping point from rainforest to savanna might be close.

[146]: 225 The climate system exhibits "threshold behavior" or tipping points when parts of the natural environment enter into a new state.

[153] A collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation would likely halve rainfall in India and lead to severe drops in temperature in Northern Europe.

In coastal regions, more salt may find its way into water resources due to higher sea levels and more intense storms.

[185] Climate change is particularly likely to affect the Arctic, Africa, small islands, Asian megadeltas and the Middle East regions.

[159]: 795–796  The ten countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are among the most vulnerable in the world to the negative effects of climate change.

This would happen if greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow rapidly without a change in patterns of population growth and without migration.

[206] The entire populations of small atoll nations such as Kiribati, Maldives, the Marshall Islands, and Tuvalu are at risk of being displaced.

[223] Migration due to desertification and reduced soil fertility is typically from rural areas in developing countries to towns and cities.

[231][230] Efforts to mitigate or adapt to climate change can also cause conflicts, for instance due to higher food and energy prices or when people are forcibly re-located from vulnerable areas.

To prevent it, they propose phase down fossil fuels, reduce methane emissions, overconsumption, and birth rate, switch to plant-based food, protect and restore ecosystems and adopt an ecological, post-growth economics which includes social justice.

Rising temperatures, lower water flow, and changes in rainfall could reduce total energy production by 7% annually by the end of the century.

Poor adaptation to climate change further widens the gap between what people can afford and the costs of insurance, as risks increase.

Lack of rainfall possibly linked to climate change reduced the number of ships passing through the canal per day, from 36 to 22 and by February 2024, it is expected to be 18.

The primary causes [ 5 ] and the wide-ranging impacts [ 6 ] [ 7 ] [ 3 ] : 3–36 of climate change . Some effects act as positive feedbacks that amplify climate change. [ 8 ]
Over the last 50 years the Arctic has warmed the most, and temperatures on land have generally increased more than sea surface temperatures . [ 15 ]
Large increases in both the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events (for increasing degrees of global warming) are expected. [ 31 ] : 18
New high temperature records have outpaced new low temperature records on a growing portion of Earth's surface. [ 42 ]
Map of increasing heatwave trends (frequency and cumulative intensity) over the midlatitudes and Europe, July–August 1979–2020 [ 44 ]
New Orleans submerged after Hurricane Katrina , September 2005
Wildfire disasters (those claiming at least 10 lives or affecting over 100 people) have increased substantially in recent decades. [ 73 ] Climate change intensifies heatwaves and droughts that dry vegetation, which in turn fuels wildfires. [ 73 ]
Oceans have taken up almost 90% of the excess heat accumulated on Earth due to global warming. [ 82 ]
Climate change causes a drop in the ocean's pH value (called ocean acidification ): Time series of atmospheric CO 2 at Mauna Loa (in parts per million volume, ppmv; red), surface ocean pCO 2 (μatm; blue) and surface ocean pH (green) at Ocean Station ALOHA in the subtropical North Pacific Ocean. [ 83 ] [ 84 ]
The global average sea level has risen about 250 millimetres (9.8 in) since 1880, [ 92 ] increasing the elevation on top of which other types of flooding ( high-tide flooding and storm surge ) occur.
Long-term sea level rise occurs in addition to intermittent tidal flooding. NOAA predicts different levels of sea level rise for coastlines within a single country. [ 93 ]
Earth lost 28 trillion tonnes of ice between 1994 and 2017, with melting grounded ice (ice sheets and glaciers) raising the global sea level by 34.6 ±3.1 mm. [ 100 ] The rate of ice loss has risen by 57% since the 1990s−from 0.8 to 1.2 trillion tonnes per year. [ 100 ]
Melting of glacial mass is approximately linearly related to temperature rise. [ 101 ]
Reporting the reduction in Antarctic sea ice extent in mid 2023, researchers concluded that a "regime shift" may be taking place "in which previously important relationships no longer dominate sea ice variability". [ 111 ]
Part of the Great Barrier Reef in Australia in 2016 after a coral bleaching event (partly caused by rising ocean temperatures and marine heatwaves ).
The rate of global tree cover loss has approximately doubled since 2001, to an annual loss approaching an area the size of Italy. [ 137 ]
Climate change will affect coral reef ecosystems, through sea level rise , changes to the frequency and intensity of tropical storms, and altered ocean circulation patterns. When combined, all of these impacts dramatically alter ecosystem function, as well as the goods and services coral reef ecosystems provide. [ 141 ]
There is a number of places around the globe which can pass a tipping point around a certain level of warming and eventually transition to a different state. [ 147 ] [ 148 ]
Projected changes in average food availability (represented as calorie consumption per capita ), population at risk of hunger and disability-adjusted life years under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways : the baseline, SSP2, and SSP3, scenario of high global rivalry and conflict. The red and the orange lines show projections for SSP3 assuming high and low intensity of future emissions and the associated climate change. [ 177 ]
Overlap between future population distribution and extreme heat in a high emission scenario [ 191 ]
Floodplains and low-lying coastal areas will flood more frequently due to climate change, like this area of Myanmar which was submerged by Cyclone Nargis .
Estimates of damage to GDP vary widely, and even this approach to predicting damage does not consider impacts of climate tipping points, climate-driven extreme events, human health impacts, resource or migration-driven conflict, geopolitical tension, nature-driven risks, or sea level rise. [ 209 ]
Sea level rise at the Marshall Islands , reaching the edge of a village (from the documentary One Word )
Overlap between state fragility, extreme heat, and nuclear and biological catastrophic hazards [ 191 ]
Regional median economic impacts predicted due to global warming by 2050 compared to present. [ 256 ]
Rich nations have done the most to fuel climate change. [ 265 ]